Bitcoin has broken down from a key bear flag pattern, and one market analyst now sees a slide toward $39,000 as the dominant scenario, potentially unfolding into the autumn.
The commentator, who has been framing Bitcoin’s recent price action as a “bear market corrective rally” for months, argues that the latest breakdown closely tracks prior cycle behavior despite repeated claims that “this time is different.”
Bear Flag Break Sparks Talk of Deeper Decline
Analyst More Crypto Online notes that Bitcoin has cleanly lost the lower boundary of its trend channel, a structure they have repeatedly compared to previous bear markets, including 2022.
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In those past cycles, once similar ranges broke, “that was it” — declines accelerated quickly as the market moved from a grinding counter-trend rally into impulsive downside.
Using Fibonacci extensions, the commentator identifies roughly $39,000 as the “tentative” downside target, mirroring the same 100% extension logic that produced their earlier $82,000 upside target for the now-completed B-wave rally.
They emphasize the word tentative, stressing that a wider B-wave is still theoretically possible, but increasingly unlikely based on timing and seasonality: “From a time cycle point of view and also from a seasonality point of view, a wider wave B at this point would be unusual.”
Near term, structural support sits at three key levels: the late-March low around $65,000, another zone near $62,700, and the February low around $60,200. These are flagged as areas “where the market might react,” but not necessarily where the full move would end.
Oversold Readings, But Still No Sign Of a Bounce
Despite the bearish structure, the analyst does not rule out a sizable relief rally. Bitcoin’s daily RSI is now oversold, and historically “whenever it is oversold, it tends to produce a bounce,” with previous examples in November and February.
They frame this as a likely but not guaranteed outcome, reinforcing that “an oversold reading doesn’t guarantee a bounce.”
In Elliott Wave terms, the preferred path is a completed Wave 1 down, followed by a Wave 2 relief rally, before a sharper third-wave decline accelerates the move toward the low-$40,000s and potentially $39,000.
Resistance for that possible Wave 2 is placed between $73,000 and $79,300. A strong rejection from that band would, in their view, “indicate the start of a third wave decline.”
For now, however, “there isn’t really much more to say” on very short timeframes: the drop has been nearly straight down, and the microstructure offers few clues.
The first real signal that bulls are regaining some control would be a break above the last swing high near $69,650, combined with a visible five-wave advance on lower timeframes.
Until that happens, More Crypto Online is treating Bitcoin as firmly in a bear market, with fast downside moves and slow, weaker countertrend rallies as the baseline pattern.
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Not at all. Analyst More Crypto Online $39,000 as an extension-based target into autumn, not a straight-line move.
A break above roughly $69,650, combined with a small five-wave advance, would be the first sign of a potential Wave 2 bounce.
The late-March low near $65K, the $62.7K area, and the February low around $60.2K are highlighted as key reaction zones.
They explicitly push back on the idea that “the four-year cycle is dead” arguing current behavior still resembles previous bear cycles.
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