TLDR
- XRP’s monthly RSI dropped to 42.7, matching levels seen before past major rallies.
- Analyst Celal Kucuker identified a recurring pattern linking low RSI readings to strong recoveries.
- XRP continues trading above long-term ascending channel support despite recent market weakness.
- Similar RSI setups appeared in 2015, 2020, and 2022 before substantial price advances.
- Kucuker’s chart projects a potential move toward $25 if XRP follows previous channel patterns.
XRP entered a familiar technical zone after its monthly momentum indicator dropped near levels that previously preceded major rallies. At the same time, the asset continued trading above long-term channel support. Analysts highlighted the setup after XRP fell more than 10% in June and touched multi-month lows near $1.19.
XRP Price Tests Historical Momentum Threshold
Analyst Celal Kucuker pointed to a recurring pattern on XRP’s monthly chart. He stated that the relative strength index, or RSI, dropped to 42.7.
The indicator now sits near levels recorded before previous XRP recoveries. Kucuker said each occurrence preceded a strong upward move.
The ripple:native monthly chart is screaming.
2017 — XRP exploded.
2021 — XRP exploded.
2024 — XRP exploded.
Is 2026 next?
Ripple before every major rally, this momentum indicator reached the same extreme low zone.
Now it’s back at historical levels once again. pic.twitter.com/ElwEx7ANPW— Celal Kucuker (@CelalKucuker) June 3, 2026
XRP declined over 5% during the past 24 hours. As a result, the asset reached its lowest level in several months.
The analyst shared chart data showing the RSI approaching oversold territory. However, he argued that similar readings historically appeared near market bottoms.
According to Kucuker, every major XRP rally followed a monthly RSI decline into this range. He cited several historical examples supporting the pattern.
The first example occurred in November 2015. During that period, XRP fell from roughly $0.028 to $0.0040 within a larger chart formation.
Following the decline, the monthly RSI dropped to 46.7. XRP later entered the rally that extended into the 2017 market cycle.
Historical XRP Price Recoveries Follow Similar Pattern
A similar setup appeared during March 2020. At that time, XRP fell to approximately $0.104 during broader market weakness.
The monthly RSI reached 43.7 before momentum shifted. XRP later advanced toward its April 2021 peak of $1.97.
The pattern appeared again in August 2022. XRP traded near $0.31 after an extended correction across the crypto market.
The RSI fell to around 43.9 during that period. XRP later recovered and eventually reached $3.39 in January 2025.
Current chart data shows the indicator returning to the same range. As a result, analysts continue comparing the setup with previous cycles.
Kucuker noted that momentum weakened while support remained intact. He said this combination appeared before prior recoveries.
The latest reading arrives as XRP price trades inside a long-term ascending channel. The structure has guided price movement since 2017.
XRP continues forming higher lows within the channel. Price action has repeatedly moved between support and resistance boundaries.
The asset now trades close to the lower channel boundary. However, market data shows it remains above that support level.
Kucuker stated that momentum already returned to historically depressed levels. He added that the price still holds its long-term structure.
His chart identified the upper channel resistance as the next technical target. Based on the channel projection, that level sits near $25.
The projected target represents a gain of roughly 2,000% from current prices. XRP traded near $1.19 when the analysis was published.
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