TLDR
- Merlin (MRLN) stock jumped 32.71% in after-hours trading to $9.49 on Thursday after completing a Critical Design Review (CDR) for its C-130J autonomy program with USSOCOM
- The CDR completion moves the program from design into aircraft integration and formal testing phases
- The program falls under an existing IDIQ contract with a total ceiling value exceeding $100 million
- Stock closed the regular session at $7.18, down 1.24%, and sits near its 52-week low of $5.78
- TD Cowen has a Buy rating on MRLN with an $11 price target; analysts project revenue to nearly double in fiscal 2026
Merlin (MRLN) stock surged 32.71% in after-hours trading on Thursday, jumping from a regular session close of $7.18 to $9.49, after the company announced it had completed a Critical Design Review (CDR) for its C-130J autonomy program with U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM).
The CDR marks the finalization of the aircraft’s design configuration. It moves the program out of the design development phase and into aircraft integration and structured formal testing, including aircraft-level testing.
The program is part of Merlin’s existing IDIQ contract with USSOCOM. That contract has a total ceiling value exceeding $100 million.
Matt George, CEO and founder of Merlin, said the review “validates the architecture we’ve built for safe, scalable autonomy on large aircraft like the C-130J.”
He added that the company is now focused on “proving autonomy from takeoff to touchdown is one of the most effective ways to improve operations and safety for US warfighters.”
The goal of the program is to develop an AI-powered autonomy stack for the C-130J Super Hercules. The aim is to reduce crew workload across all phases of flight.
What the Milestone Means for the Program
The CDR is a formal engineering checkpoint that confirms the design is mature enough to proceed into hardware and system integration. Passing it is a required step before any aircraft-level testing can begin.
Merlin says it has completed hundreds of autonomous flights from test facilities to date. The company describes itself as building an operating system for autonomous flight.
The program also includes potential expansion pathways to other Department of Defense platforms and commercial aviation applications.
Where the Stock Stands
Despite the after-hours pop, MRLN has had a rough year. The stock dropped 29.95% over the past 12 months and was trading near just 12.5% of its 52-week range heading into Thursday’s close.
The 52-week high is $17, with the low at $5.78. Market cap sits around $693 million.
The RSI stands at 43.39, putting the stock in neutral-to-slightly-oversold territory.
For Q1 2026, Merlin reported a 15% year-over-year revenue increase to $1 million, though the company posted a net loss driven largely by non-cash adjustments tied to a recent business combination.
Analysts project revenue to nearly double in fiscal 2026. The company holds more cash than debt, according to InvestingPro data.
TD Cowen initiated coverage on MRLN with a Buy rating and an $11 price target, citing Merlin’s contracts on military autonomy programs including the C-130J and KC-135. Other analyst price targets range from $11 to $15 against Thursday’s close of $7.18.
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