Bitcoin’s recent drop below $60,000 has brought back bearish comparisons into the play. Crypto analysts are now comparing the current market downturn with the 2022 bear market cycle. Back then, Bitcoin fell 22% below its previous all-time high before hitting bottom.
Today, Bitcoin is already down 53% from its all-time high, raising questions about where the market stands.
Is Bitcoin Following the 2022 Bear Market
The comparison isn’t just about falling prices. It’s about how the market is behaving.
Back in 2022, Bitcoin reached its cycle top near $68,000 before staging a powerful relief rally that convinced many investors the correction was over. Instead, that bounce turned into a bull trap, and the real breakdown came afterward as Bitcoin eventually fell to $16,000.
Some traders believe the current cycle is moving similarly.
As bitcoin peaked near $126,000 before recovering to around $80,000 earlier this year. At the time, many saw the move as the start of another rally. Instead, Bitcoin has since lost momentum, breaking below major support levels and quickly falling to under $60,000.
Analysts also point out that Bitcoin has only fallen about 10.5% below its previous cycle high from 2021. During the last bear market, Bitcoin sank roughly 22% below the previous cycle peak before finding a bottom.
That is the only difference; some traders think the correction may not be finished.
Rekt Capital Sees Support Getting Weaker
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital believes Bitcoin’s reactions from the $60,000 area tell an important story.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin’s rebounds from the $60,000 region have become weaker over time. A similar support test in 2024 sparked a rally of more than 100%, while the most recent recovery generated a much smaller rally of around 38%.
Each rebound has become weaker, suggesting buyers are stepping in with less confidence than before.
According to the analyst, the next few weeks could decide the market’s direction. Holding above $59,000 may open the door for a relief rally, while losing that level could expose Bitcoin to another move lower toward $54,000.
How the Next Six Months Could Play Out
Looking forward, traders expect June and July to remain difficult as high interest rates, weak summer trading activity, and ongoing liquidations continue weighing on the market.
The bearish scenario points to Bitcoin declining toward the $47,000-$55,000 region during late summer before a final capitulation phase. Some forecasts place the ultimate bottom closer to $42,000, followed by a recovery attempt in the final months of the year.
And just like 2022, many investors may not recognize it until after it has already happened.
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