TLDR
- Adobe stock slipped 1% on Monday, trading around $247, and is down nearly 29% year-to-date
- Earnings are due Wednesday, June 11, with analysts watching ARR growth closely
- Stifel raised its price target to $400, maintaining a Buy rating
- TD Cowen cut its target to $285 from $310, citing fading pricing tailwinds and softer product data
- BNP Paribas held a Neutral rating with a $265 target, flagging leadership uncertainty after CEO departure
Adobe heads into its Q2 earnings report on Wednesday with analyst opinion sharply divided and the stock nursing a rough year.
Adobe stock is down nearly 29% year-to-date, trading around $247. That’s a steep fall for a company that was once a Wall Street darling, and it sets up a high-stakes print on June 11.
The CEO departure is still fresh. Shantanu Narayen announced he was stepping down after 18 years at the helm following Q1 earnings. The stock has dropped 5% since that announcement alone.
BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski kept his Neutral rating and $265 price target, pointing to that leadership uncertainty as a key overhang. He called the setup ahead of Q2 “tricky.”
Not everyone is bearish though. Stifel’s J. Parker Lane raised his price target to $400 from $350 and kept his Buy rating. He expects an organic revenue beat of around 1.5% and modest upside in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR).
Lane said the real bar for the stock to move higher is ARR stabilization quarter-over-quarter and an organic full-year raise. He sees that as what it would take to build confidence in double-digit growth durability.
The AI book of business is a bright spot Lane flagged. He noted it needs to continue its high-growth trajectory to offset softer areas of core Adobe products and the freemium push.
TD Cowen Cuts Target on Weaker Data
TD Cowen took a more cautious stance, cutting its target to $285 from $310 while holding a Hold rating. The firm pointed to mixed third-party data going into the print.
Credit card data showed just 1.5% year-over-year growth, down from roughly 3%, 4.5%, 4%, and 6% in the prior four quarters. That’s a notable deceleration.
TD Cowen’s partner survey was stable quarter-over-quarter, but the commentary on Firefly, Acrobat AI, and Express was described as softer. Consultants also flagged fading price tailwinds and minimal AI credit purchasing.
The firm expects Adobe to report in-line ARR and sees little change to FY2026 estimates. That’s not exactly a bullish setup.
What Analysts Are Watching
Mizuho kept a Neutral rating and expects Adobe to reiterate its FY2026 guidance, which targets 10.2% year-over-year growth in Total ARR.
RBC Capital is more optimistic. The firm holds an Outperform rating and thinks ARR could come in above the consensus estimate of $26.6 billion, pointing to potential re-acceleration.
Piper Sandler reiterated a Neutral rating, noting guidance of 9.9% revenue growth for the quarter. They flagged additional benefits expected from the Semrush acquisition.
Adobe acquired Semrush recently, and some analysts are watching how that revenue gets reported alongside organic figures.
Options data going into the print suggests traders are pricing in a meaningful post-earnings move in either direction.
Adobe reports Q2 fiscal 2026 results on Wednesday, June 11.
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