An anonymous crypto analyst is challenging the idea that Hedera (HBAR) is a “dead” trade, arguing in a recent video that derivatives data points to large, patient buyers quietly building positions while retail sentiment collapses.
The focus is on a sharp jump in open interest and futures activity in late May 2026 that, if accurate, would suggest institutional-style strategies at work beneath HBAR’s flat spot price.
Derivatives Data vs. Flat HBAR Price Movements
The analyst frames current HBAR price action as “sideways, grinding lower, freezing,” but says the real-time blockchain stats & derivatives markets are telling a different story.
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According to the YouTube video analysis, open interest in Hedera derivatives surged roughly 40% in the final weeks of May, climbing to around $33 million, while futures trading volume “skyrocketed” by about 242%.
Crucially, Cheeky Crypto notes that funding rates have stayed “incredibly stable and localized.” If the move were mostly panicked retail traders shorting HBAR, they argue, funding would show a clear imbalance.
Instead, the pattern is presented as consistent with “highly calculated, market neutral institutional positioning,” with algorithms “quietly deploying fresh leveraged capital.”
On-chain, Cheeky Crypto cites data showing large wallets now holding about 55% of circulating HBAR, calling it a “massive liquidity sink” in which tokens migrate from weak hands into deep storage.
No independent source for that figure is provided in the video, but it underpins the claim that Hedera’s (HBAR) structural health may be stronger than the spot chart implies.
Algorithmic Demand At $0.085 & The Stop-loss Trap
Cheeky Crypto highlights what they describe as a firm “algorithmic demand zone” at roughly $0.085. Each time HBAR drifts toward that level, they say, the sequence repeats: spot price stalls just above it, futures volume spikes, and open interest expands, without significant price movement.
This is interpreted as evidence of institutional buy walls using derivatives to absorb “panicked retail” selling. High 24-hour volume on a flat price is labeled “structural absorption,” with large players allegedly content to let bored or fearful traders capitulate into their bids.
Retail use of trailing stop losses around this level is portrayed as a vulnerability. Cheeky Crypto argues that many stops cluster just below support (for example, around $0.083 if $0.085 is the perceived floor), inviting deliberate “liquidity hunts” — brief flushes down to trigger stops, then rapid rebounds as algorithms scoop up forced sales.
For investors, the takeaway is less about a guaranteed upside for Hedera and more about process: when price goes flat priority should shift from charts to derivatives flows and wallet concentration.
If his read is correct, HBAR’s quiet tape may be concealing an aggressive accumulation phase by long-horizon players — and a familiar battlefield where retail traders’ risk tools can work against them.
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Not guaranteed. The analyst suggests data is consistent with accumulation, but repeatedly notes the volatility of crypto and the risk of losing all invested capital.
A roughly 40% jump in open interest to about $33 million, a 242% spike in futures volume, stable funding rates, and a claimed 55% supply concentration in large wallets.
Using basic trailing stop losses around tight support zones during accumulation phases, which they argue are easily exploited by larger players seeking liquidity.
The analyst references “on-chain forensics” but does not name specific crypto analytics platforms or datasets.
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