Bitcoin (BTC) Is Flashing Same Pattern Seen Before FTX Crash: Analyst

Bitcoin may still face a deep capitulation event despite an improving sentiment across the broader market.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly crossed $67,000 yesterday after a recently brokered peace agreement between the United States and Iran boosted market sentiment.

Despite the rally, the crypto asset may be approaching another capitulation event, according to crypto analyst Doctor Profit, who compared the current market structure to the setup seen before the FTX collapse in 2022.

2022-Style Capitulation Pattern

In the latest tweet, the analyst explained that before that crash, Bitcoin was moving higher while forming a bullish divergence on the weekly chart, which led many traders to buy near the $20,000 level. However, panic selling followed after the market collapsed, leaving many investors with losses of around 20%.

A similar pattern appears to be developing once again, as Bitcoin shows a bullish divergence on the weekly time frame in addition to renewed buying pressure. Based on this setup, he believes the market could still face a sharp capitulation move before reaching its bottom.

The recent rise in Bitcoin came after US President Donald Trump revealed that the United States had completed a peace agreement with Iran following months of conflict. The deal reportedly includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade affecting Iranian ports and shipping routes. Although much of the agreement remains unclear, Trump said the next step would involve fresh negotiations between both countries.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shared by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson revealed that many BTC holders are currently underwater as the crypto asset recorded the second-largest unrealized loss in its history. However, realized losses remain relatively low, which means that panic selling has not fully emerged yet. Wedson said the gap between unrealized and realized losses indicates that broad capitulation may still be ahead if investors begin selling aggressively at a loss.

Downside Target

Bitcoin’s previous major market bottom formed when the price reached the CVDD level before beginning a new bull run. According to the crypto analyst Ali Martinez, the metric is currently sitting near $48,000, a level that could become important if Bitcoin sees another deeper correction.

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This also aligns with earlier market predictions from Doctor Profit, who had previously identified the $40,000-$48,000 range as a potential final bottom zone for Bitcoin in the current cycle.