US-Iran truce chatter lifts risk mood as Polymarket puts Burnham at 79%

US-Iran Ceasefire Deal Sparks Risk-On Rally as Andy Burnham’s Makerfield Odds Tick Up to 79%

Global markets rallied after reports of a US-Iran agreement to halt the war and restart Middle East oil shipments, sending crude lower and lifting risk assets. On Polymarket, the Makerfield by-election Winner contract showed a modest uptick, with Andy Burnham implied at 79% to win.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices Andy Burnham as the leading Makerfield by-election winner at 79% (21% no).
• The contract inched up by 0.5 percentage point from 78.5% to 79% as broader risk sentiment improved.
• The market is scheduled to resolve on June 18, 2026; Burnham’s odds are up 5 points over the past 24 hours.

Global hedge fund managers are positioning for a return to pre-war trades after Iran’s deputy foreign minister confirmed a deal was reached with the US to halt the war. The agreement, expected to be signed on Friday, is set to remove a major overhang after months of fighting that disrupted oil supply and stoked inflation concerns. Crude fell on Monday, helping drive a rally in stocks and bonds, while the dollar weakened as demand for safe havens eased. Treasuries rose across the curve as the oil drop led traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Some managers cited opportunities in shorter-dated US government bonds, the yen, and beaten-down Asian stocks and currencies that had suffered during the conflict.

Polymarket Data: $6.199M Matched Volume with Burnham at 79% vs Kenyon at 20.5% Ahead of June 18, 2026 Resolution

Polymarket shows $6,199,073 in matched volume on the Makerfield by-election Winner market, with pricing concentrated around Andy Burnham at 79% yes / 21% no. The next closest line is Robert Kenyon at 20.5% yes / 79.5% no, implying traders see a two-horse race with a wide gap. Long-shot outcomes are priced near zero, including Rebecca Shepherd at 1.4% yes / 98.6% no and several others at 0.05% yes / 99.95% no, signaling little appetite to pay up for tail risk at current levels.

Watch for further shifts in implied odds and volume ahead of the June 18, 2026 resolution date, especially if liquidity rotates between Burnham and Kenyon.

Beyond UK Politics: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Tracking

Away from UK politics, attention on Polymarket is also clustering around a handful of high-liquidity election and leadership contracts that traders use as barometers for broader risk sentiment. The $1,199,388,594 Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 market has Gavin Newsom leading at 24.35%, while Jordan Bardella tops the Next French Presidential Election at 25.5% on $100,583,309 in volume. In Latin America, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is priced at 51.5% in the $100,504,822 Brazil Presidential Election contract, and the Peru Election 2nd Round margin market shows “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” at 93.6% on $2,164,836.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Makerfield by-election Winner
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Jun 18, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$6,199,073

Top strike rungs

+3 more strikes not shown

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Sources

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