Judge tosses xAI suit vs OpenAI as Polymarket puts Anthropic at 91.55%

Judge Tosses xAI’s Trade-Secrets Suit vs OpenAI as Polymarket Odds Push Anthropic to 91.55%

A U.S. federal judge’s decision to throw out xAI’s trade-secrets case against OpenAI is landing as another setback for Elon Musk’s AI efforts, even as rivalry among top labs remains intense. On Polymarket, trading in “Which company has best AI model end of June?” still heavily favors Anthropic, with its implied odds ticking up to 91.55%.

Key Takeaways

• Anthropic is the clear favorite at 91.55% to have the best AI model by end of June 2026 on Polymarket.
• The repricing comes as a federal judge dismissed xAI’s trade-secret lawsuit against OpenAI with prejudice, undercutting xAI’s legal claims in the AI race.
• The market resolves on June 30, 2026, with Anthropic’s implied odds up 0.8 percentage points from 90.75% at the latest snapshot.

A federal judge in San Francisco dismissed a lawsuit brought by Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI accusing Sam Altman’s OpenAI of stealing trade secrets for chatbots. U.S. District Judge Rita Lin said xAI did not show that OpenAI induced former xAI senior engineer Xuechen Li to reveal confidential information tied to the Grok chatbot, or that OpenAI engineers knew Li might have disclosed anything. Lin dismissed the case with prejudice, saying it would be futile to continue, after she had already dismissed an earlier version in February. The amended complaint centered on a presentation Li gave while OpenAI was recruiting him, but the judge said it is routine for employers to ask candidates about prior work and that this did not support an inference of a push to leak confidential material. OpenAI said Li never worked for the company and that it never obtained xAI’s secrets, while xAI is separately suing Li and he has denied wrongdoing.

“Best AI Model by End of June 2026” Market Sees $15.3M Volume as Anthropic Leads 91.55% vs Google 4.5% and OpenAI 2.25%

Polymarket shows $15,301,204 in matched volume on “Which company has best AI model end of June?”, with the field priced as a near-lock for Anthropic at 91.55% Yes versus 8.45% No. The next tier is far behind, with Google at 4.5% Yes / 95.5% No and OpenAI at 2.25% Yes / 97.75% No, implying traders see little chance of a late-cycle leadership change by June 2026. Long-shot pricing remains extreme: xAI trades at 0.35% Yes / 99.65% No and Meta at 0.15% Yes / 99.85% No, consistent with a market that is concentrated rather than broadly diversified. The latest move is modest—Anthropic up to 91.55% from 90.75%—but the skew indicates positioning remains heavily one-sided.

Whether any major model release, benchmark result, or evaluation methodology change meaningfully shifts the spread between Anthropic and the rest ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date.

Beyond AI Lab Rivalries: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching Today

Beyond the tech sector’s model-leaderboard wagers, Polymarket flows are also clustering around geopolitics and macro risk. “99.45% No — Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” has drawn $57,578,599 in matched volume as traders price a low probability of abrupt political change, while crypto bettors are positioning in “45% ↓ 64,000 — What price will Bitcoin hit June 15-21?” with $284,492 traded amid a notable repricing.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Which company has best AI model end of June?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$15,301,204

Top strike rungs

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