Jessie A Ellis
Jun 18, 2026 08:03
After drawing over $12 million in backing from the crypto super PAC Fairshake, U.S. Senate candidate Barry Moore won Alabama’s Republican runoff Tuesday with nearly 56% against Jared Hudson.
Peru Election Runoff Margin Market: Polymarket Traders Price a Razor-Thin Fujimori Win in the 0.2–0.3% Band
U.S. Representative Barry Moore won the Alabama Republican primary runoff for an open Senate seat after receiving more than $12 million in backing from the crypto super PAC Fairshake. On Polymarket, traders have pushed the Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets) ladder to favor a razor-thin Fujimori win in the 0.2–0.3% bracket.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices the leading outcome, “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%,” at 92.6% Yes (7.4% No).
- Odds moved higher as trading concentrated in the tight-margin Fujimori bands, with total volume reaching $2,533,539.
- The leading outcome is up 60.6 percentage points over both the past 24 hours and the past 7 days, per historical summary data.
U.S. Senate candidate Barry Moore won the Alabama Republican primary runoff after drawing more than $12 million in crypto political backing, according to the report. The crypto super PAC Fairshake and its affiliates spent more than $12 million to support Moore, who has backed key crypto legislation while serving in Congress. Moore defeated former Navy Seal Jared Hudson in Tuesday’s runoff, taking almost 56% of the vote after failing to clear 50% in the initial May primary, which triggered the runoff. A Fairshake spokesman said the group had nearly $150 million cash on hand and was aiming to expand a pro-crypto caucus, while filings cited about $164 million on hand at the end of April. The report also said Fairshake devoted $735,000 to U.S. Representative Kevin Hern in an Oklahoma Republican primary where he won his party’s Senate nomination, and noted Fairshake’s major backers include Coinbase, a16z Crypto and Ripple.
Polymarket Odds and Volume: “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” at 92.6% Yes with $2,533,539 Traded as Adjacent Bands Collapse
On Polymarket’s ladder market for Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets), the contract “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” leads at 92.6% Yes versus 7.4% No, with $2,533,539 in volume. Pricing drops sharply one step away: “Fujimori 0.3–0.4%” trades at 4.15% Yes / 95.85% No, while “Fujimori 0.1–0.2%” is 0.8% Yes / 99.2% No. Longer-tail outcomes remain near zero, including “Sánchez 1%+” at 0.05% Yes / 99.95% No, highlighting a heavily crowded view around a very specific narrow Fujimori margin rather than a broad distribution across bands.
Watch whether liquidity continues to cluster in the 0.2–0.3% band or begins to migrate into adjacent Fujimori brackets, which would signal traders widening the expected margin distribution.
Beyond Peru: Fairshake’s $12M Barry Moore Boost and Other High-Interest U.S. Crypto-Politics Contracts on Polymarket
Beyond the Peru ladder, Polymarket’s deepest liquidity is also clustering around longer-dated political pricing, led by Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028, where Gavin Newsom tops the field at 24.25% with $1,202,881,216 in volume. In Europe and Latin America, traders are watching the Next French Presidential Election (Jordan Bardella 25.5%; $101,899,951) and Brazil Presidential Election (Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 50.5%; $101,387,630), while the Colombia Presidential Election stands out for its lopsided pricing, with Abelardo de la Espriella at 88.5% on $37,552,037.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +60.6 |
| 7d | +60.6 |
By the Numbers
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Fujimori 0.2–0.3% | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| Fujimori 0.3–0.4% | 4.2% | 95.8% |
| Fujimori 0.1–0.2% | 0.8% | 99.2% |
| Fujimori 0–0.1% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
+19 more strikes not shown
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Sources
Image source: Shutterstock
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