Alvin Lang
Jun 18, 2026 16:04
On June 17, Radio Scotland’s Politics Show ran a pub-quiz-style preview of by-elections in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry after SNP MPs moved to Holyrood.
Peru Election 2nd Round Margin Ladder: “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” Becomes the Market’s Dominant Call at 92.3%
A Scottish politics podcast episode previewing by-elections in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry aired on June 17, drawing attention to the campaigns triggered by MPs switching from Westminster to Holyrood. On Polymarket, traders in the “Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)” ladder continue to heavily price the “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” band as the dominant outcome.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” as the leading bracket at 92.3% Yes (7.7% No).
- Trading skew remains concentrated in the tight 0.2–0.3% margin band despite a modest dip from 92.6% previously to 92.3%.
- Over the last 24 hours, the leading bracket’s odds are up about 60.6 percentage points, with total volume at $2,587,754.
A June 17 episode of Radio Scotland’s Politics Show focused on a “pub quiz” style preview of upcoming by-elections in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. The program described the contests as being triggered by SNP figures Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins moving from Westminster to Holyrood. Host Natalie Higgins discussed the races with Lynsey Bews and Justin Bowie, who co-hosts The Stooshie podcast. The episode was listed as 24 minutes long and appeared as part of Scotcast, a Scottish news podcast. The show also promoted applications to attend a live event at the Edinburgh Festival and provided an email address for listener contact.
Polymarket Data: $2,587,754 Volume Concentrated in the 0.2–0.3% Band as Odds Jump +60.6 Points
Polymarket’s ladder market shows a sharp concentration in the “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” margin bracket, priced at 92.3% Yes versus 7.7% No on $2,587,754 of volume. The next closest band, “Fujimori 0.3–0.4%,” is far behind at 4.15% Yes and 95.85% No, while “Fujimori 0.1–0.2%” sits at 0.75% Yes and 99.25% No. Several longer-shot bands are priced at or near 0.15% Yes (99.85% No), including “Fujimori 1%+” and “Other,” underscoring how tightly traders are clustering around a razor-thin win scenario rather than a broader range of margins.
Watch whether liquidity begins to spread into adjacent brackets such as “Fujimori 0.1–0.2%” or “Fujimori 0.3–0.4%,” and whether the leading 92.3% price holds as volume continues to build.
Beyond Peru: Other High-Interest Polymarket Contracts Bettors Are Tracking Right Now
Beyond Peru, Polymarket traders are also parking capital in longer-dated political lines where liquidity is deepest and narratives shift quickly. In U.S. politics, the “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market shows Gavin Newsom leading at 24.25% with $1,203,183,466 in volume. Europe’s marquee contest is the “Next French Presidential Election,” where Jordan Bardella tops the board at 25.5% on $102,059,382, while in Latin America “Brazil Presidential Election” has Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 49.5% ($101,485,732) and “Colombia Presidential Election” prices Abelardo de la Espriella at 89.5% ($37,610,934).
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +60.6 |
| 7d | +60.6 |
By the Numbers
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Fujimori 0.2–0.3% | 92.3% | 7.7% |
| Fujimori 0.3–0.4% | 4.2% | 95.8% |
| Fujimori 0.1–0.2% | 0.8% | 99.2% |
| Fujimori 0.8–0.9% | 0.1% | 99.8% |
+19 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
Sources
Image source: Shutterstock
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