Hormuz shipping resumes as Polymarket sees 5.5% odds Iran halts enrichment

Strait of Hormuz Shipments Resume After U.S.-Iran Deal as Polymarket Prices 94.5% “No” on Ending Enrichment by June 30

Oil prices fell even as crude and refined-product shipments resumed through the Strait of Hormuz after a U.S.-Iran deal to end the war, underscoring easing near-term supply fears despite new Iranian conditions on transit. On Polymarket, traders have sharply marked down the chances that Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30, with the contract now heavily priced toward “No.”

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices “No” at 94.5% and “Yes” at 5.5% for Iran ending uranium enrichment by June 30.
• The contract has swung lower for “Yes” from 41.5% to 5.5% as geopolitical headlines centered on post-war shipping and talks.
• The market resolves on June 30, 2026; implied “Yes” odds are down 36.0 percentage points from the prior reading.

Brent crude edged higher on Friday but remained on track for a weekly decline of about 8% after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon, while Iran set conditions for use of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent was up 66 cents at $80.38 a barrel by 1:30 p.m. ET, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 94 cents at $77.54, with trading volumes light due to a U.S. federal holiday. Gulf producers were preparing to raise exports after the ceasefire began at 4 p.m. local time (1300 GMT), and at least four tankers carrying crude, oil products and liquefied petroleum gas entered the Strait of Hormuz on Friday heading for Iraqi Gulf ports, according to MarineTraffic data. Iran signaled tighter control over shipping, with state TV reporting that vessels must coordinate transit with the Revolutionary Guards navy, and an advisory said no vessel is permitted to pass without a valid passage permit issued by Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority. A planned meeting between Iranian and U.S. officials in Switzerland on Friday was postponed, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said, adding it was no longer urgent because a memorandum of understanding on ending the war had already been signed digitally.

Polymarket Liquidity Check: $10.42M Matched Volume as “Yes” Crashes from 41.5% to 5.5% Ahead of the June 30, 2026 Resolv

On Polymarket, the “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” contract was priced at 5.5% for Yes and 94.5% for No, with No the clear leading outcome. Total matched volume stood at about $10.42 million, pointing to deep liquidity behind the bearish positioning. The implied Yes probability has dropped 36.0 percentage points versus the prior snapshot (41.5% to 5.5%), reflecting a decisive shift in trader conviction ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date.

Traders will be watching for any concrete, dated commitments tied to uranium enrichment ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline and whether pricing meaningfully rebounds from the current low-single-digit Yes odds.

Beyond Oil and Iran: Other Top Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching Now

Beyond the June deadline, Polymarket traders are also pricing longer-run paths for de-escalation and shipping normalization. In the adjacent timeline markets, “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?” is led by No at 87.0% on about $555,235 in volume, while “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” shows No at 72.5% with roughly $979,985 matched. On maritime risk, “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” is skewed to No at 91.5% with $28,388,171 traded, and “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” is closer, with No at 53.0% on $6,815,277.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
• Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Leading implied prob.: 5.5%
• Volume: ~$10,422,589
• Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 5.5% / No 94.5%; No: Yes 5.5% / No 94.5%

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Sources

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