Bitcoin is trading near $64,000 after losing roughly half its value from the October 2025 peak, leaving the market caught between long-term accumulation signals and a still-fragile short-term trend.
BTC recently traded around $64,185, with intraday movement holding between the low-$63,000 area and resistance near $64,500 to $65,000. The price zone follows a sharp correction from last year’s record high above $126,000, a decline that has pushed Bitcoin into the kind of drawdown territory usually associated with late-cycle stress rather than a normal pullback.
The short-term chart has stabilized after Bitcoin bounced from the $62,000 to $63,500 range, but the recovery has not yet cleared the overhead band where sellers have repeatedly stepped in. A clean break through $65,000 would improve the near-term structure, while a renewed move below $62,000 would put the market back into the lower range that defined the latest selloff.
Macro pressure remains part of the move. Bitcoin fell below $63,000 after Federal Reserve officials projected a possible rate hike, keeping risk assets under pressure as traders reassessed liquidity conditions. Crypto has struggled in tighter-rate environments because leverage becomes more expensive, ETF demand weakens and speculative capital moves more defensively.
Bulls Still Point To Structural Demand
Bitcoin bulls are leaning on the same argument that has supported the market through much of the drawdown: large buyers have absorbed supply that might otherwise have pushed BTC much lower.
Strategy remains the clearest corporate-demand proxy. The company recently bought 1,550 BTC at an average price of $65,332, lifting its holdings above 845,000 BTC even as the market questioned its funding model and preferred-stock obligations. That buying did not immediately move Bitcoin higher, but it reinforced Michael Saylor’s position that Strategy remains structurally long BTC despite the company’s small earlier sale.
The supply side is also becoming tighter. Bitcoin long-term holder supply recently hit a record 16.64 million BTC, equal to roughly 83% of current circulating supply. That means more coins are sitting with holders who have not moved through the latest volatility, reducing the amount of supply immediately available to short-term traders and exchange liquidity.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has framed the current market around absorption, arguing that Bitcoin could have been far lower if Strategy and ETF buyers had not absorbed large sales from older holders. His view that BTC could be near $22,000 without Saylor and ETF demand gives the bull case a clear market-structure angle: the drawdown is severe, but the bid has not disappeared.
Bears Watch ETF Flows And Cycle Risk
The bear case starts with the same number bulls are trying to defend. A 50% drawdown from the high has already damaged momentum, and previous Bitcoin cycles have produced deeper peak-to-trough declines before durable bottoms formed.
ETF flows have added pressure. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently saw a record $6.35 billion 30-day net outflow, removing one of the strongest demand channels that helped absorb whale selling earlier in the cycle. Outflows do not automatically mean open-market dumping, but they do show that the regulated demand channel has weakened while BTC trades near the lows.
Spot-market activity is also thin. Crypto spot trading volume recently fell to its lowest level since October 2023, reducing the depth available to support rebounds. Low volume can help prices drift higher during calm periods, but it can also make breakdowns faster when macro shocks, ETF redemptions or leveraged liquidations hit together.
The market’s immediate range is now clearly defined. Bulls need Bitcoin to reclaim the $64,500 to $65,000 area and rebuild demand above it. Bears need a break back below $62,000 to reopen the path toward lower support. Bitcoin’s confirmed position is a stalled mid-$60,000 range, with record long-term-holder supply on one side and weakening ETF and spot demand on the other.
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