Judge orders Musk deposition as Polymarket keeps Vance atop 2028 at 19.65%

Musk Deposition Order Fuels Election “Vote Buying” Case as Polymarket Keeps JD Vance Leading 2028 Odds

A judge ordered Elon Musk to sit for a deposition in a case alleging an election-related “vote buying” scheme, a legal development that injected fresh uncertainty into political influence narratives. On Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market, traders kept JD Vance as the top-priced outcome while the long-tail field, including Donald Trump, remained far behind.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices JD Vance as the leading 2028 winner at 19.65% (No 80.35%) on the “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market.
• After the Musk deposition order headline, pricing remained fragmented across candidates, with no single outcome above 20% in the current board.
• The market resolves on Nov. 7, 2028, and has seen a 7-day move of -3.15 percentage points in the provided historical summary.

A judge ordered Elon Musk to give a deposition in a case that alleges an election-related “vote buying” scheme, according to the report’s headline. The order compels Musk to provide sworn testimony as part of the litigation. The allegations described in the case center on improper election influence through inducements framed as vote buying. The deposition order signals the dispute is moving deeper into fact-finding and could broaden scrutiny of political activity connected to the claims. The report did not provide further details in the snippet about timing, jurisdictions, or specific remedies sought.

Polymarket 2028 Market Data: $639.6M Volume, Vance at 19.65% as No Candidate Breaks 20%

Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2028” contract is trading with $639,644,786 in volume, led by JD Vance at 19.65% Yes versus 80.35% No. Next in the price stack are Gavin Newsom at 14.25% Yes / 85.75% No and Marco Rubio at 11.6% Yes / 88.4% No, showing a dispersed front-runner profile rather than a dominant favorite. Lower down, Donald Trump is priced at 1.65% Yes / 98.35% No, with Ron DeSantis at 1.55% Yes / 98.45% No, reflecting heavy market skepticism about those specific outcomes. The board implies traders are allocating probability across a wide field, with most candidates priced as low-likelihood winners despite the market’s large notional activity.

Watch whether follow-on legal milestones from the deposition order lead to sustained repricing across the top three outcomes (JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, Marco Rubio) or mainly shift the long-tail candidates’ probabilities ahead of the Nov. 7, 2028 resolution date.

Beyond the 2028 Race: Other High-Volume Politics and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching

Away from the 2028 winner tape, traders are also concentrating liquidity in a mix of foreign-policy and leadership-risk contracts. In “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028,” Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads at 49.0% with $664,629,466 in volume, while U.K. turnover and stability are in focus in “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban),” where Starmer – UK PM is priced at 89.5% on $4,546,648. Middle East-related event risk is being tracked in “Who will enter Iran by June 30?” with Any U.S. House member at 0.35% on $8,446,217, alongside “What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?” where Troop Withdrawal sits at 100.0% on $12,813,521.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Presidential Election Winner 2028
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Nov 07, 2028 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$639,644,786

Top strike rungs

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