MSTR’s Bitcoin Per Share Gets ‘Annihilated’ in Extreme Bear Case: Analyst

A worst-case model sends MSTR stock to $1 and CEBE sharply lower, but the company still avoids a death spiral.

A three-year stress test of Strategy (MSTR) suggests the company could survive an extreme market downturn, although common shareholders would face significant losses, according to Bitcoin-focused author and market commentator Adam Livingston.

The model assumed a severe scenario in which Bitcoin falls 55% from $59,100 to $26,600 within six months, mNAV drops below 0.50x, capital markets remain closed, and the company is forced to sell BTC to meet its obligations.

Brutal MSTR Stress Test

The starting assumptions included MSTR stock at $87.64, total Bitcoin holdings of 847,363 BTC, cash reserves of $1.4 billion, CEBE of 138,161 sats per share, and a claim ratio of 41.5%. As BTC prices decline in the model, fixed-dollar senior claims rise sharply in Bitcoin terms. Senior claims increase from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC, while the claim ratio climbs to 96.7%.

The analysis shows that common equity Bitcoin would fall from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE drops from 138,161 sats per share to 7,884 sats per share, while the modeled MSTR share price falls from $87.64 to $1.01. Livingston described this phase of the scenario as the “horror movie.”

The stress test assumes no new Bitcoin purchases, no common share issuance, and monthly obligations of $167.7 million. Cash would be exhausted by the ninth month, after which the company would begin selling Bitcoin to service its obligations. Over the three-year period, Strategy would sell 115,727 BTC.

Despite those losses, the model would end with the company holding 731,636 BTC. The final modeled state places Bitcoin at $48,498, MSTR at $51.86, mNAV at 1.40x, common equity Bitcoin at 274,093 BTC, CEBE at 76,380 sats per share, and the claim ratio at 62.5%.

According to Livingston, the analysis does not point to an “instant bankruptcy” or a “death spiral.” Instead, he said the main risk is CEBE compression as senior claims temporarily consume most of the company’s Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms.

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FUD Around Strategy

Livingston’s analysis comes as the debate surrounding Strategy’s BTC accumulation strategy has intensified in recent months. Some expect the company may need to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings in the coming years. For instance, crypto analyst Kaleo recently warned that the company’s best option now would be to sell 50,000 or more BTC in the next two years.

Meanwhile, others, such as CryptoQuant, have called for a pause in new purchases to strengthen cash reserves.