Jessie A Ellis
Jun 30, 2026 18:27
On Monday, the Supreme Court declined to hear Donald Trump’s appeal in the E. Jean Carroll case, leaving the lower-court ruling intact.
Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s E. Jean Carroll Appeal, Polymarket’s 2028 GOP Nominee Odds Stay Flat
The Supreme Court declined to hear Donald Trump’s appeal in the E. Jean Carroll case, keeping the lower-court decision in place. On Polymarket, pricing in the “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” market was flat, with no change in the leading contract odds at the time of publication.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the top pick for the 2028 Republican nomination at 49% (Yes 49% / No 51%).
- After the Supreme Court refused to hear Trump’s E. Jean Carroll appeal, the Polymarket market showed no immediate repricing in the leader.
- The contract is set to resolve on Nov. 7, 2028; the market’s 24-hour and 7-day changes were both 0.0 percentage points.
The Supreme Court refused to hear Donald Trump’s appeal in the E. Jean Carroll matter, leaving the lower-court outcome intact. The decision means the justices will not revisit Trump’s challenge through this appeal route. The case stems from Carroll’s litigation against Trump and has remained a high-profile legal dispute. With the court declining review, the existing judgment and associated legal consequences remain in effect for now.
“Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” Sees $666M Volume as RFK Jr Holds 49% and J.D. Vance Sits at 41.85%
Polymarket showed heavy activity in the “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” market, with $666,459,743 in volume and a flat read on the leader at 49%. The top line priced Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at Yes 49% / No 51%, while J.D. Vance followed at Yes 41.85% / No 58.15% and Marco Rubio at Yes 22.15% / No 77.85%. Farther down the board, Donald Trump was priced at Yes 1.95% / No 98.05% and Tucker Carlson at Yes 3.95% / No 96.05%, showing a steep drop-off after the top contenders. With 0.0 percentage-point moves over both 24 hours and seven days, the tape signaled stable positioning rather than a broad shift in implied probabilities.
Watch whether pricing concentrates further in the top two names or broadens across the field as liquidity shifts; the market is scheduled to resolve on Nov. 7, 2028.
Beyond the 2028 GOP Race: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Bettors Are Tracking
Away from the 2028 GOP-nomination tape, Polymarket flow has also concentrated in a mix of election, leadership-risk and geopolitics contracts. “Presidential Election Winner 2028” has drawn $642,225,515 in volume with J.D. Vance leading at 19.55%, while “Venezuela leader end of 2026?” shows Nicolás Maduro at 79.85% after a 5.6-point move. In Europe, “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” prices Starmer – UK PM at 91.5% (up 0.5), and the Iran-focused “Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?” is pinned to Masoud Pezeshkian at 100.0%.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +0.0 |
| 7d | +0.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Nov 07, 2028 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$666,459,743
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| J.D. Vance | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| Marco Rubio | 22.1% | 77.8% |
| Tucker Carlson | 4.0% | 96.0% |
+32 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
Sources
Image source: Shutterstock
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