US lifts Anthropic export curbs as Polymarket best-model odds slip to 83.5%

Trump Lifts Export Controls on Anthropic’s Mythos 5 and Fable 5, Yet Polymarket Still Favors Anthropic for “Best AI Mode

The Trump administration is lifting export controls on Anthropic’s Mythos 5 and Fable 5 AI models after the company reached a deal with the Commerce Department. On Polymarket, traders still heavily favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by the end of July, though the lead has edged down.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices Anthropic as the leader at 83.5% to have the best AI model by end-July, ahead of Google at 13.25% and OpenAI at 2.75%.
• Traders kept Anthropic far in front even as the leading outcome slipped 0.5 percentage point from 84.0% to 83.5%.
• The market resolves on 2026-07-31, with the leading odds down 2.5 points over both the past 24 hours and seven days.

The Trump administration is lifting export controls on Anthropic’s two most powerful AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, after the company reached an agreement with the Commerce Department. The change was communicated in a letter from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to Anthropic cofounder Tom Brown. Lutnick wrote that a license is no longer required for export, reexport, or in-country transfer of the Mythos or Fable models, which had previously been limited to select companies and government agencies. The move follows discussions with the Commerce Department and the White House aimed at strengthening safeguards against users bypassing Fable’s safety restrictions to access restricted capabilities, including cybersecurity-related functions. Lutnick said Anthropic agreed to proactively detect and address security risks and to work with the U.S. government on protocols, standards, and releases for Mythos, Fable, and future models.

Polymarket Odds and Volume: Anthropic 83.5% on $2.80M “Best AI Model End of July” Contract as Lead Slips 0.5 Points

Polymarket shows $2,798,289 in volume on the multi-outcome contract “Which company has best AI model end of July?” with Anthropic still the dominant favorite. Anthropic is priced at 83.5% Yes / 16.5% No, while Google stands at 13.25% Yes / 86.75% No, and OpenAI at 2.75% Yes / 97.25% No. Long-shot outcomes are priced near zero, including xAI at 0.35% Yes / 99.65% No and a cluster at 0.15% Yes / 99.85% No such as Meta, Microsoft, and Baidu. The small 0.5-point dip in the leader (from 84.0% to 83.5%) suggests only modest hedging rather than a broad unwind of the Anthropic-heavy positioning.

Watch whether the Anthropic lead continues to fade from the recent average of 85.6% over the last five observations, and whether volume accelerates ahead of the 2026-07-31 resolution date.

Beyond the AI Race: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching

Away from the AI leaderboard, Polymarket flows are also concentrating in event-driven markets across sports and politics that can turn on a single headline. Among the higher-activity contracts, “Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier” has drawn $612,435 in volume, with the leading line “Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 Winner” priced at 100.0% after a 0.05-point move. Traders often use these fast-resolving contracts alongside longer-dated macro and geopolitical bets to manage exposure as sentiment shifts intraday.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Which company has best AI model end of July?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$2,798,289

Top strike rungs

+11 more strikes not shown

Related Markets

Sources

View market on platform