TLDR
- Tesla is expected to report around 397,000–408,600 Q2 deliveries, up roughly 3% year-over-year
- European registrations surged, with France more than doubling and Sweden up 56% in June
- US sales are under pressure, with Cox Automotive estimating a 20% decline due to the end of federal EV tax credits
- Deutsche Bank expects North American sales down 21% YoY but up 7% sequentially from Q1
- TSLA closed at $420.60 on June 30, up over 8% Monday, but is down over 8% for the year
Tesla (TSLA) is set to report its second-quarter delivery numbers as early as Wednesday, with Wall Street watching closely to see if Europe can keep carrying the load.
The Bloomberg consensus sits at 397,000 total deliveries for Q2. Tesla’s own sell-side consensus, published on its investor relations page on June 26, puts the number closer to 406,024, with a median estimate of 408,600.
That would mark roughly 3% growth from the 384,000 deliveries logged in Q2 2025. Year-on-year comparisons were depressed a year ago due to the Model Y changeover and backlash over CEO Elon Musk’s political activity.
TSLA closed at $420.60 on June 30, after gaining more than 8% on Monday — its biggest single-day move in a year. Despite that pop, the stock is essentially flat for the quarter and down over 8% in 2026.
Europe Driving the Recovery
The clearest bright spot in Tesla’s delivery picture right now is Europe. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, Tesla registered 28,610 vehicles across Europe in May, up nearly 108% year-over-year. Year to date through May, registrations hit 118,068, a 57% jump.
Within the EU alone, May registrations more than doubled, rising 152%.
June data is still coming in. France more than doubled, Denmark rose 39%, and Sweden climbed 56%, according to figures released Wednesday.
Norway was the exception — registrations dropped 43% year-over-year. UK and Germany data are due later this week.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu called Europe “the standout driver,” projecting nearly 40% year-over-year growth from the region. China is expected to add roughly 3% growth, while North America is forecast to fall 21% year-over-year, though up 7% from Q1.
Battery-electric vehicles overall now account for 20% of the EU market through May, up from 15.3% a year ago, as petrol and diesel sales continue to slide.
US Sales Facing Headwinds
The US side of the ledger is tougher. The federal EV tax credit has expired, removing a key incentive that made the numbers work for a lot of buyers. Cox Automotive estimates Tesla’s US sales are down 20% as a result.
Musk’s political profile continues to stir controversy in Europe, though it doesn’t appear to be costing Tesla as many sales as it once did — buyers appear willing to look past it if the price is right.
Energy Deployments Also in Focus
Beyond vehicle deliveries, Tesla’s energy and battery storage segment will also be reported. Tesla’s own internal consensus estimate calls for 13.8 GWh deployed in Q2, which would represent more than 50% growth compared to Q1’s 8.8 GWh.
Britain and Germany, Europe’s two largest car markets, are due to release their June registration figures later this week.
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