Jessie A Ellis
Jul 01, 2026 12:19
In a recent address, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine hit Russia’s Ufa oil refinery for the second time in a week and also struck a missile-components plant in Penza, claims Russia hasn’t confirmed.
Israel Next Prime Minister Odds: Gadi Eizenkot Jumps to 40.55% After Zelenskyy Claims New Ufa Refinery Strike
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s Ufa oil refinery for the second time in a week, extending a campaign of long-range attacks that he said has contributed to fuel shortages in Russia. On Polymarket, traders nudged up the leading line in the contract “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” with Gadi Eizenkot implied at 40.55%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the top pick at 40.55% to be Israel’s next prime minister after the next election.
- The repricing came as Zelenskyy said Ukraine hit Russia’s Ufa oil refinery again, alongside a claimed strike on a missile-components plant in Penza.
- The market is set to resolve by 2026-12-31, with $23,709,936 in volume and the leader up 1.45 percentage points from 39.1%.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s major Ufa oil refinery for the second time in a week, as Kyiv steps up long-range attacks on Russian oil facilities. Zelenskyy said the refinery is one of Russia’s largest producers of lubricants and is located more than 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine. He also said Ukraine struck a plant producing missile components in Russia’s Penza region, about 500 kilometers from Ukraine. Russian officials did not confirm the strikes, which could not be independently verified. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting 179 Ukrainian drones across 16 Russian regions, the annexed Crimea, and over waters of the Azov and Black seas, while Penza’s governor said debris from downed drones damaged a power line and fell on a building under construction.
Polymarket Pricing Snapshot: $23.7M Volume, Eizenkot +1.45pp to 40.55% vs Netanyahu at 36.5%
Polymarket’s multi-outcome market on the next prime minister of Israel shows a tight top tier, led by Gadi Eizenkot at 40.55% Yes / 59.45% No versus Benjamin Netanyahu at 36.5% Yes / 63.5% No. Naftali Bennett is a distant third at 11.0% Yes / 89.0% No, while Avigdor Lieberman sits at 3.35% Yes / 96.65% No. Total matched volume was $23,709,936, and the leader’s implied probability was last marked up by 1.45 percentage points to 40.55%, signaling incremental but not decisive conviction at the top of the book.
Polymarket traders will be watching for shifts in the top-two spread between Eizenkot and Netanyahu, and whether volume concentrates into the frontrunner or disperses across second-tier candidates ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution date.
Beyond Israel Politics: Other High-Volume Geopolitical Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Tracking
Beyond Israeli electoral speculation, traders are also concentrating on neighboring diplomatic flashpoints, with “Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?” pricing a 94.75% “No” and about $1,470,401 in volume. The contract’s 1.9 percentage-point move underscores how Polymarket participants are leaning into binary, deadline-driven geopolitical outcomes even as attention rotates across the region.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.0 |
| 7d | +2.0 |
By the Numbers
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Naftali Bennett | 11.0% | 89.0% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 3.4% | 96.7% |
+14 more strikes not shown
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