TLDR
- Cantor Fitzgerald says Bitcoin is likely in the final stage of its current bear market cycle
- Historical data suggests a potential market bottom around late October 2026
- Bitcoin is down about 51% from its late-2025 peak, trading around $59,500
- Cantor named Hyperliquid, Ethereum, and Bitcoin as top picks for durable value
- The bank initiated coverage of two digital asset treasury companies with overweight ratings
Wall Street bank Cantor Fitzgerald says Bitcoin may be just months away from hitting a cycle bottom. The firm’s analysts, led by Gareth Gacetta, said in a Tuesday report that crypto markets are entering the final stage of the current bear cycle.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Wall Street bank giant Cantor Fitzgerald says Bitcoin is entering the final stages of the bear market 👀
“Ultimately, our belief is that we are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback”🚀 pic.twitter.com/xuMK0sl2Eh
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 1, 2026
As of June 10, Bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak and down roughly 51%. Across the previous three market cycles, Bitcoin bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking. If history repeats, the current low could arrive around late October 2026.
Cantor cautioned that this model is not a precise timing tool. Macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical risks could shift the outcome. But the bank noted that crypto’s reflexive nature means historical cycles can reinforce themselves.
Bitcoin was trading around $59,500 at the time of publication.
The broader crypto market has struggled in recent months. A sharp June selloff, driven by persistent ETF outflows, elevated interest rates, and weaker risk appetite, pushed Bitcoin more than 50% below its late-2025 high.
Ether and most major altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin during the downturn. A handful of sectors, including decentralized finance and tokenization, have shown relative resilience.
Where Cantor Says the Value Is
With the market nearing a potential turning point, Cantor told investors to shift focus from speculative activity to networks with durable value accrual.
The bank argued that usage alone does not drive token value. Long-term winners will need to convert activity into sustainable cash flow or lasting monetary demand.
Cantor named Hyperliquid as the clearest example of fee-driven token economics, citing its buyback and burn model. Bitcoin was described as the benchmark monetary asset. Ethereum was called the dominant collateral layer for onchain finance.
Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each have differentiated strengths, Cantor said, but still need to prove they can turn ecosystem growth into durable token demand.
The bank also flagged digital asset treasury companies as an overlooked investment theme. It said the strongest firms are moving beyond passive crypto holding into active operations that generate yield and build infrastructure.
Cantor initiated coverage of Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies with overweight ratings. Price targets were set at $7.90 and $0.90, respectively.
Market Context
Data from CoinShares shows BTC-focused funds have been the top contributor to net inflows into crypto products in 2026. Nasdaq reported IPO volume of $129.3 billion on its platform in the first half of 2026.
A Bitcoin rebound could act as a catalyst for more exchange listings and venture funding in the blockchain space. Regulatory clarity from bodies like the SEC remains a key variable.
The main downside risks are macro volatility and regulatory uncertainty. The main upside drivers are improved ETF infrastructure and a more favorable market structure.
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