SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Drops as Analyst Calls 100x Sales Valuation ‘Catastrophic’

TLDR

• SpaceX stock fell 0.4% in premarket trading Thursday after two cautious Wall Street reports
• Daiwa launched coverage with a Hold rating and a $175 price target
• Kailash Concepts flagged the stock’s valuation at roughly 100 times trailing sales, calling potential returns “catastrophic”
• The stock is now down around 22% from its post-IPO peak
• Upcoming insider selling lockups expiring could add further downward pressure on the stock

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SpaceX stock dropped slightly in premarket trading Thursday, hitting $157.54, after two new analyst reports raised fresh concerns about its sky-high valuation.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Daiwa analyst Jonathan Kees launched coverage with a Hold rating and a $175 price target. A Hold isn’t a sell, but it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement either.

The sharper criticism came from Kailash Concepts, a research firm that blends quantitative data with fundamental analysis. They didn’t mince words.

Kailash flagged that SpaceX is trading at roughly 100 times trailing sales — a level they describe as a red flag. Their data shows stocks trading above 10 times sales trail the S&P 500 roughly two-thirds of the time over three years and lose more than 30% relative to the index.

“To state the obvious, 100 times sales is a valuation that is ten times higher than 10 times sales,” the firm wrote.

At 13 analysts covering SpaceX so far, seven rate it a Buy. Price targets range from $165 to $310. Notably, none of the major brokers who handled the IPO have yet weighed in — that’s still a few weeks away.

The IPO Pattern

SpaceX delivered the biggest IPO in history, with its stock jumping 19% on day one — exactly in line with the average first-day gain for IPOs since 1980, according to University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter.

But history isn’t being kind to the stock right now. Among the 15 largest U.S. IPOs since 2006, the average stock fell around 50% from its IPO price at some point in the first year. Average first-year returns for those stocks were losses of roughly 33%.

The stock is already down about 22% from its peak. If it follows the historical playbook, further declines could be ahead.

One potential boost: SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 Index after the close on July 6, 2026. That typically drives buying from ETFs and index funds that must hold all index components.

Lockup Risk on the Horizon

The bigger concern for investors may be what comes after earnings.

Following SpaceX’s second-quarter results, expected in mid-August, insiders can start selling 20% of eligible stock. That number rises if the stock trades at least 30% above its IPO price during five of 10 consecutive trading days before the Q2 update.

There are also time-based lockup expirations, with insiders able to sell up to 7% of holdings at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO. After Q3 earnings, up to 28% more can hit the market.

Kailash also pointed to Elon Musk’s track record, noting that Tesla’s promises on autonomous vehicles took far longer to deliver than initially guided. They described SpaceX’s $2.2 trillion valuation as resting largely on the promise of putting up to one million orbital AI data center satellites in low Earth orbit within two to three years.

SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue last year. The company did not respond to requests for comment.