Speculative “fast money” continues its rotation out of alternative stores of value and into high-flying tech sectors, and Bitcoin (BTC) is about to face a critical test of its long-term floor, according to Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments.
Despite the fact that BTC is currently approaching its historical baseline, a trend reversal remains elusive due to the lack of bullish catalysts in the current macroeconomic environment.
Bitcoin’s Power Law
Bitcoin’s “Power Law” model is a logarithmic chart that shows Bitcoin’s lifetime price action within an upper resistance boundary, a median trendline, and a historical support baseline.
The $60,000 level appears to be the line in the sand for the leading cryptocurrency. It is a psychological and technical pivot point.
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The orange BTC price power law support line currently sits at $58,237. This baseline acts as some sort of mathematical safety net for the leading coin.
In 2015, for instance, Bitcoin touched $230 against a modeled support of $252. In 2018, BTC was ground down to $3,204 against a modeled support of $2,521. In 2022, BTC bottomed at $16,366 against a modeled support of $15,006.
The magenta sub-chart at the bottom measures the premium or percentage by which Bitcoin trades above its structural floor/ During past bull runs, this premium expanded exponentially. However, this premium has been exhausted.
The flagship coin would need an injection of global liquidity to surge above the baseline. Global money supply growth has decelerated, and the speculative premium that drove Bitcoin past $120,000 has dissolved.
The $58,237 power law support line has historically acted as an unbreakable institutional floor, Timmer remains cautious about calling for an immediate bottom.
Bitcoin may face an extended period of stagnation along this support line before a true reversal can actually take shape due to the dire macroeconomic environment.
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