After an extended decline, Bitcoin is beginning to stabilize, but macroeconomic factors are still preventing a long-term rebound.
CoinShares reports that the rebound was brought on by a June U.S. nonfarm payrolls report that was weaker than anticipated, adding only 57,000 jobs as opposed to 115,000. This was a lot less than the 129,000 gain (revised from an initially reported 172,000) in May.
Macroeconomic factors supporting Bitcoin’s recovery
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.3% to 4.2%.
On the release, the market pushed back its pricing for a short-term Fed hike, and the yield on the two-year Treasury fell more than five basis points.
For context, bond yields that are lower make fixed-income assets less appealing and frequently lead investors to shift their money to riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. This change in perception aided Bitcoin’s [BTC] comeback from its most recent low of about $57,000.
The report contends that investors shouldn’t confuse this transient market response with a more significant shift in Fed policy.
It added,
The Fed held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% at its June meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first as chair, and the accompanying dot plot moved hawkish rather than dovish.
Policymakers are now anticipating rates to average 3.8% at the end of 2026, up from the 3.4% forecast just three months ago.
Concerns remain
Meanwhile, the whales who held over 100,000 Bitcoin sold off about $39 billion worth of the cryptocurrency around the October market peak—the largest drag on the price of the cryptocurrency throughout 2025.
However, this selling has now largely ceased as of 2026.
In fact, though there have been net outflows of about $2.7 billion from Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) this year, CoinShares argues that this does not indicate waning trust in the cryptocurrency.
Rather, the majority of the capital has shifted into AI-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have drawn inflows of about $5.5 billion.
The report also identifies geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, diminishing hopes for the CLARITY Act to pass this year, and possible supply pressure from Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings as additional challenges.
Hence, the report concluded it best when it noted,
This still looks like the early stage of a bottoming process, not the start of a clean new leg higher.
Current market dynamics
This occurs as Bitcoin’s price increased 1.3% over the previous day, trading around $62,494.63 at press time.
Meanwhile, Open Interest has been steady and trending upward since mid-June, suggesting that traders are still taking on new positions despite the recent volatility.
However, a relatively low price and high open interest also indicate that leverage is growing on both the bullish and bearish sides.
Thus, for now, this raises the possibility of a sudden move as liquidations may intensify Bitcoin’s next significant price swing.
Final Summary
- A decline in June U.S. nonfarm payrolls along with a decline in the unemployment rate has pushed Bitcoin’s price above $60k.
- CoinShares dismisses waning trust in the cryptocurrency despite $2.7 billion from Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs).
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