Trump scraps Iran MoU, oil jumps as Polymarket prices Hormuz normalcy at 0.85%

Trump Says Iran MoU Is “Over”: Polymarket Shifts to Near-Certain “No” on Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalizing by July 15

Oil and broader markets swung after President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the conflict was “over” and warned of additional U.S. strikes. On Polymarket, traders heavily favored “No” on the contract asking whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices the “No” outcome at 99.15% and “Yes” at 0.85% for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?”.
• Traders repriced after Trump said the Iran MoU was “over” and warned of more strikes, as oil jumped and risk assets fell.
• The market is set to resolve on July 15, 2026, with implied odds showing a decisive skew toward “No” ahead of that date.

Global markets fell and oil prices rose after U.S. President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the conflict was “over” and warned the United States would likely carry out additional strikes on Wednesday night. Major U.S. stock indexes opened lower, with the Dow down 0.8%, the Nasdaq down 0.2%, and the S&P 500 down 0.5%. Brent crude climbed 4.2% to $77.24 a barrel, the highest in two weeks, after Trump told reporters, “We’re going to hit them hard tonight,” and said the action “may be a big attack.” The report said oil had been falling from a $126-a-barrel high in late April amid a mid-June deal expected to end the war and allow energy to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, a route it described as carrying about a fifth of the world’s oil. It also said U.S. gasoline prices declined to $3.79 per gallon from a $4.48 peak in May, while remaining above $2.98 on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel first struck Iran, as travel stocks fell on concerns about higher fuel costs.

Odds and Volume Breakdown: “No” at 99.15% vs “Yes” at 0.85% With $8.18M Traded on the Hormuz Contract

Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?” contract showed an extreme tilt toward disruption, with “No” at 99.15% versus “Yes” at 0.85%. The market had logged about $8,180,451 in volume, suggesting strong conviction rather than a thin, easily moved book. The pricing implies traders see very little probability of traffic being back to normal by the July 15 resolution date.

Whether the contract’s pricing stays pinned near 99% “No” or loosens will likely hinge on any sustained shift in the “Yes” price off the sub-1% range and whether volume continues to build into the July 15, 2026 resolution date.

Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching

Beyond the shipping-lane wager itself, Polymarket participants are spreading risk across a cluster of Iran-related contracts that blend headline geopolitics with longer-dated scenario hedges. Traders currently price “Iran leader end of 2026?” at 82.7% for “Mojtaba Khamenei” on $18,952,855 in volume, while “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” shows 85.5% for “No” with $39,856,684 traded. In process-focused markets, “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?” is led by “December 31” at 36.5% on $8,545,459, and “Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by…?” has “August 15” on top at 35.0% with $3,322,427 in volume.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
• Resolution window: Jul 15, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Leading implied prob.: 0.8%
• Volume: ~$8,180,451
• Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 0.8% / No 99.2%; No: Yes 0.8% / No 99.2%

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