Hyperliquid’s native token trades near $63.7 on July 14 after buyers defended the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $62.1, but the recovery remains below the 50-day simple moving average and coincides with outflows from HYPE spot ETFs.
Monday’s sell-off pushed HYPE approximately 2.3% lower for the past day but the token found support at the Fibonacci level measured from the May low of $38.1 to the cycle high around $77. The bounce preserved the immediate support structure, while the 50-day SMA at $65.3 now stands between the current price and a broader recovery.
Key Takeaways
- HYPE recovered to approximately $63.7 after defending the 0.382 Fibonacci support at $62.1.
- The 50-day SMA at $65.3 has shifted from support into the first major barrier for the recovery.
- HYPE spot ETFs recorded $9.66 million in combined outflows on July 10 and July 13.
The 50-Day SMA Becomes Resistance
The 50-day SMA supported the rally from late May but now sits above the price for the first time during the current cycle. A level that previously absorbed pullbacks has become the immediate test for buyers attempting to restore the uptrend.
Coindoo’s owner Filip Vantchev, who published the setup on X, wrote that HYPE “held the key Fibonacci support after yesterday’s sell-off” and identified the moving average as the decision point. A confirmed rejection at the 50-day SMA can leave the token exposed to another decline, while a reclaim followed by a successful retest might shift the structure back toward upside continuation.
HYPE has formed lower highs since reaching $76.9 in early June. The descending trendline and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $67.7 sit above the moving average, creating a resistance band between approximately $65.3 and $67.8. Price has been rejected from that area during each of its last three approaches.
The relative strength index near 53 does not provide a directional advantage. Momentum remains neutral, leaving the price response around the moving average and descending trendline to determine whether the recovery can develop into a structural reversal.
A daily close below $62.1 may invalidate the current defense and expose the next Fibonacci supports at $57.5 and $52.9. The lower level coincides with the area where HYPE began consolidating in June.
Two Red Sessions Interrupt the Daily Inflow Pattern
The spot-demand picture weakened alongside the technical breakdown. According to SoSoValue data, HYPE spot ETFs have recorded positive net inflows in every completed week since tracking began on May 15, including a weekly peak of $111.36 million in the period ending June 26.
The current week has not yet closed, but the latest two trading sessions were negative. Investors withdrew $5.73 million on July 10 and another $3.93 million on July 13, while July 9 recorded no net movement. The two red sessions produced combined outflows of $9.66 million.
That amount remains small compared with the more than $300 million accumulated since May. The timing is more notable: the withdrawals appeared as HYPE lost the 50-day SMA, indicating that ETF demand did not cushion the technical weakness during those sessions.
Two consecutive outflow days are not enough to establish sustained distribution, and the current week could still finish with a positive net result. A return to inflows before the weekly close can weaken the signal, while further red sessions would mark the first meaningful interruption to the products’ previously consistent demand trend.
CPI and Warsh Test the Broader Risk Environment
June U.S. consumer price index data is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on July 14. Consensus expectations point to headline inflation slowing to 3.8% year over year from 4.2% in May, with core inflation near 2.8%.
After that, Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual testimony as Federal Reserve Chair before the House Financial Services Committee. Markets are likely to assess his comments alongside the inflation report, with rate futures pricing the possibility of an interest-rate increase as early as September.
A softer inflation reading combined with a patient policy signal could improve demand for risk assets and help HYPE challenge the resistance between $65.3 and $67.7. A stronger CPI print or hawkish testimony probably will reinforce the pressure already visible in ETF flows and the technical structure.
Energy prices add another inflation risk. WTI crude rose 3% to $80.5 on July 14, while Brent gained 4.3% to $86.9, according to OilPrice data. Renewed escalation between the United States and Iran has added a supply-risk premium to crude, which could complicate the Federal Reserve’s attempt to bring inflation lower.
Higher energy costs feed into the inflation outlook, while tighter monetary policy has historically reduced liquidity at the more speculative end of the market.
Confirmation and Invalidation Levels
Reclaiming the 50-day SMA at $65.3 and holding it on a retest could turn the moving average back into support, opening the way toward the resistance band near $67.7.
Failure to defend $62.1, particularly during a broader risk-off move, might weaken the current structure and expose $57.5, followed by $52.9 if selling pressure persists.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.
Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem.
To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem.
His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
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