Polymarket odds steady: RFK Jr. 49% for GOP 2028 nominee after Trump report

Polymarket Holds Flat After Trump Hormuz-Toll Backtrack—No Shift in GOP Nominee 2028 Odds

Polymarket’s “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” market is unchanged after the latest Trump-related headline, with the leader still priced at 49% on $673.6M in volume. The catalyst was a report that Trump backtracked on a Hormuz 20% toll demand, but traders did not translate it into a repricing in this nomination contract.

Key Takeaways

• Prediction market leader: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% (Yes 49% / No 51%), ahead of J.D. Vance at 41.55%.
• Basis: despite the Trump Hormuz-toll backtrack headline, the market is flat (0.0pp) and the 24h/7d change is 0.0, signaling little belief it shifts the nomination race.
• Timing: this market resolves on 2028-11-07, so near-term headlines may fade unless they persist into the nomination cycle.

A report says Donald Trump backtracked on a proposed 20% toll demand tied to the Strait of Hormuz. The headline is being treated as the immediate catalyst traders could have mapped onto longer-run political positioning, but it arrives without additional details in the provided snippet.

Market Data Check: $673.6M Volume and a 49% vs 41.55% Top-Two Spread With 0.0pp 24h/7d Change

This is a multi-outcome Polymarket contract: each named outcome is its own “Yes” share that pays out if that candidate wins the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, while the corresponding “No” reflects the complement for that specific candidate. Pricing is stable at the top—Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is 49% (Yes 49% / No 51%) and J.D. Vance is 41.55% (Yes 41.55% / No 58.45%), with a steep drop to Marco Rubio at 27.75% (Yes 27.75% / No 72.25%) and Donald Trump at 1.55% (Yes 1.55% / No 98.45%). Despite the external catalyst, the market prints as flat (0.0pp) with low volatility and a stable consensus in the historical summary (change_24h 0.0, change_7d 0.0), implying traders either see the headline as non-durable for nomination odds or as already incorporated. The $673.6M matched volume underscores that this is a heavily trafficked venue for continuously updating expectations, yet the lack of movement suggests the information did not clear the bar to shift the market’s probability-weighted narrative.

Watch whether the spread between the top two outcomes (49% vs 41.55%) widens or tightens on subsequent political catalysts, and whether Trump’s 1.55% price meaningfully deviates from its current low baseline ahead of the 2028-11-07 resolution date.

Cross-Market Watchlist: How Traders Hedge the 2028 GOP Nominee Contract With Macro and Crypto Polymarket Markets

If you’re using the Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 tape as just one input, Polymarket’s broader board shows where traders are expressing parallel views—and sometimes hedging—across adjacent contracts. In “Presidential Election Winner 2028,” the current leader sits at 19.85% on $658,557,973 in volume, while other high-conviction positioning shows up in event-style lines like “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” at 97.35% on $65,238,409 and “Trump out as President by July 31?” at 99.25% on $907,083. Watching how pricing moves across these liquid side markets can help contextualize whether shifts are idiosyncratic to a single race or part of a wider risk-on/risk-off repricing on the platform.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Nov 07, 2028 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$673,606,364

Top strike rungs

+32 more strikes not shown

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