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TxFlow L1, the Layer 1 blockchain powering a multi-application on-chain financial ecosystem built around its TIP Liquidity Standards, has announced its second Channel: Probly — the first prediction-market application built on TxFlow Improvement Protocol 3 (TIP3).
Following TxFlow DEX — the blockchain’s first application and a central limit order book (CLOB) decentralized exchange for perpetual trading — Probly expands the TxFlow L1 ecosystem into real-time prediction markets. At launch, the platform offers 172 live markets covering more than 7,000 events, including continuously rolling markets with durations as short as five minutes, backed by fully on-chain settlement and TxFlow L1’s shared financial infrastructure.
The launch marks the next stage in TxFlow L1’s evolution — from a network anchored by a flagship onchain exchange into a genuine multi-application financial ecosystem.
TIP3: Making Prediction Markets Native to TxFlow L1
 
The TxFlow Improvement Protocol (TIP) is the standards framework that defines how financial products are built and connected on TxFlow L1. Within the framework, TIP1 supports spot markets, TIP2 supports derivatives, and TIP3 establishes the standard for prediction-market Channels. TIPn remains open for future products — including real-world assets, structured products, and financial instruments not yet developed onchain.
TIP3 defines how prediction-market applications connect to TxFlow L1’s execution, settlement, and Shared Liquidity Layer. Rather than operating through an independent infrastructure stack, a TIP3 Channel builds on the same financial foundation supporting the wider TxFlow L1 ecosystem. Its architecture uses DAG-based parallel execution and a multi-threaded processing pipeline, enabling non-conflicting transactions to be processed simultaneously. All market activity and settlement records are executed onchain, providing an open and verifiable system.
Probly settles directly on TxFlow L1 — not on a shared general-purpose network or a centralized offchain ledger.
Markets are resolved through designated oracle sources. Automatically resolved price-source markets can settle immediately, while manually adjudicated markets are expected to settle within 24 to 72 hours. Following resolution, eligible settlement amounts are credited automatically in USDC — no separate claim step required.
The result is a direct infrastructure advantage for Probly: fully onchain settlement and native connectivity to the broader TxFlow L1 ecosystem.
Probly Brings Real-Time Probability Signals to TxFlow TIP3
The name says it all. Probly comes from “probably” — the word we use when the future is still open. Inspired by P(A), the mathematical notation for the probability of an event, Probly turns individual perspectives into a live, collective signal: what the market thinks will happen before it does.
At launch, Probly features 172 live event pages across 15 categories, including politics, sports, crypto, finance, and geopolitical events. Discovery tools help users explore trending, highly active, fast-moving, and soon-to-conclude events, while lightweight polls offer a simple way to engage with topics attracting attention.
Probly also introduces continuously refreshed 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour markets covering BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP price movements — each with live data, a real-time countdown, and automatically refreshed rounds, helping users follow shifting expectations as events unfold.
Built for Everyone
The platform combines fully onchain infrastructure with a clear, accessible interface designed for both new and experienced users. Real-time information, probability updates, and event timelines are presented in a single streamlined experience.
Users can access Probly through an email-based embedded wallet — no seed phrase required — or connect compatible wallets including MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, Phantom, and Uniswap Wallet. A consolidated account interface provides a clear view of activity, history, and ongoing event engagement.
Combined with TxFlow L1’s transparent on-chain infrastructure and automated resolution process, these features reduce friction from access all the way through to completion.
A Different Infrastructure Approach to Prediction Markets
Probly enters a prediction-market category shaped by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi — but is built on a fundamentally different infrastructure model. Rather than relying on a general-purpose network or off-chain settlement, Probly operates and settles directly on TxFlow L1, a Layer 1 designed specifically for on-chain financial applications. Real-time probability signals, verifiable on-chain records, and automatic USDC settlement all exist within a single financial stack. Through TIP3, Probly extends the same architecture that powers TxFlow L1’s broader ecosystem directly into prediction markets.
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