Tesla (TSLA) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings July 22

TLDR

• Tesla stock is up 0.2% in premarket trading Wednesday, opening at $396.10
• Q2 earnings are due July 22; Wall Street expects EPS of $0.55, up from $0.40 a year ago
• AI spending and robo-taxi progress are expected to matter more to investors than EV results
• Swedish fund Livforsakringsbolaget Skandia cut its Tesla stake by 12.1% in Q1
• Analyst consensus sits at “Hold” with an average price target of $408.07

---

Tesla stock has been anything but boring lately — moving more than 3% in six of the past 11 trading days. Wednesday’s premarket nudge of 0.2% higher feels almost peaceful by comparison. The stock opened at $396.10.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Coming into the week, Tesla is down 12% in 2026 but still up 27% over the past 12 months. The 52-week range sits between $297.82 and $498.83.

Investors are now focused on one date: July 22. That’s when Tesla reports Q2 earnings after the market close.

Wall Street is expecting earnings per share of $0.55 for Q2, up from $0.40 in the same quarter a year ago. Revenue estimates have not been set out in detail in recent coverage, but the earnings bar has clearly moved higher.

Earlier this year, Tesla posted Q1 EPS of $0.41, beating the $0.39 consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, slightly below the $22.96 billion expected. That quarter’s revenue was still up 15.8% year-over-year.

AI and Robo-Taxi in Focus

For Q2, analysts and investors are watching the AI narrative more than the EV numbers. Tesla is spending around $25 billion in 2026 to build out its AI-trained robo-taxi network and humanoid robot program. How management frames progress on those fronts will likely drive the stock more than the headline EPS figure.

Tesla’s robo-taxi rollout expanded into Miami, and Q2 deliveries came in ahead of expectations — the company’s best delivery quarter in two years. Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Jefferies all raised price targets heading into earnings, pointing to stronger auto and energy delivery numbers.

Despite the optimism, the analyst community is split. Of the 46 analysts covering the stock, 21 have a Buy rating, 21 have a Hold, and four have a Sell.

The average price target sits at $408.07. Guggenheim started coverage with a “Neutral” rating in late June. Jefferies holds a $400 price target with a “Hold.”

Institutional and Insider Activity

On the institutional side, Swedish insurer Livforsakringsbolaget Skandia Omsesidigt trimmed its Tesla position by 12.1% in Q1, selling 8,300 units and leaving it with 60,526 worth roughly $22.5 million. It’s now Tesla’s 24th largest holding in their portfolio.

Institutional investors and hedge funds collectively own 66.2% of Tesla’s outstanding stock. Insider ownership stands at 19.9%.

Insiders have been sellers. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 units on April 30 at an average of $378.11, reducing her position by 35.3%. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 units on May 13 at $450.00, a move linked to tax obligations on equity vesting. Over the past 90 days, insiders sold a combined 32,015 units valued at approximately $12.4 million.

Tesla’s market cap sits at $1.49 trillion. Its P/E ratio of 363.39 and PEG ratio of 14.46 reflect the premium investors are paying for the AI and autonomy story. The 50-day moving average is $410.86; the 200-day is $407.41.

Analysts expect full-year 2026 EPS of $1.30.