Intel (INTC) Stock Surges — Here’s Why the Bull Case Is Getting Harder to Ignore

TLDR

• Intel stock rose 3.6% in pre-market trading after 18A process node yields improved to ~85%, up from ~65% last quarter
• KeyBanc raised its price target to $155 from $110, maintaining an Overweight rating
• Nova Lake chip production is being brought in-house, reducing reliance on external foundry partners
• ASML confirmed Intel was the first chipmaker to achieve production qualification on High NA EUV lithography
• Intel’s Q2 earnings are scheduled for July 23, with analysts watching for foundry progress updates

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Intel (INTC) stock climbed 3.6% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, opening at $107.76, as a combination of manufacturing progress and analyst upgrades pushed sentiment higher ahead of its July 23 earnings report.

Intel Corp., INTC

The main catalyst was a jump in yields on Intel’s 18A process node — rising to roughly 85% from around 65% last quarter. That puts Intel behind only TSMC’s N2 process at approximately 90%, and well ahead of Samsung’s competing node.

Alongside the yield news, reports emerged that Intel plans to bring production of its next-generation Nova Lake chip in-house. That’s a meaningful signal that the company has growing confidence in its own manufacturing capabilities.

KeyBanc raised its price target on INTC to $155 from $110, keeping its Overweight rating. The firm said the yield improvements are “fundamentally changing the investment thesis.” KeyBanc also pointed to Intel Foundry design wins from major tech customers and strong server CPU demand tied to agentic AI workloads.

HSBC also turned more positive, doubling its price target and keeping a Buy rating, saying Intel’s foundry business looks “increasingly compelling.”

Intel announced a $5.7 billion expansion of its Ireland manufacturing site, which investors are reading as a vote of confidence in its Xeon, AI chip, and foundry roadmap.

ASML Adds Fuel

ASML’s strong Q2 results gave the broader chip sector a lift on Wednesday. The equipment maker beat revenue and profit expectations, raised full-year guidance for the second time in 2026, and specifically named Intel as the first chipmaker to achieve production qualification on High NA EUV lithography — the most advanced chip-printing technology currently available.

That confirmation added credibility to Intel’s process leadership claims and lifted chip stocks broadly. The Nasdaq gained 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the Dow added 0.3% in the same session.

Institutional Activity and Analyst Landscape

Katamaran Capital opened a new position in Intel during Q1, buying 51,364 units worth around $2.27 million. Intel now makes up 1.8% of the fund’s portfolio. Several other institutions also added to their positions, with 64.53% of INTC currently held by institutional investors.

Despite the recent optimism, Intel’s average analyst rating remains a “Hold” with a consensus price target of $101.96 — well below where KeyBanc and HSBC now sit.

Two analysts carry Strong Buy ratings, 15 have Buy ratings, 28 have Hold ratings, and four have Sell ratings.

Earnings in Focus

Intel’s Q2 earnings are set for July 23. The company guided for $0.20 EPS. In Q1, Intel posted $0.29 EPS, beating the $0.01 consensus estimate by a wide margin, on revenue of $13.58 billion — up 7.4% year over year.

EVP Boise April Miller sold 40,256 units on May 1 at an average price of $99.53, reducing her stake by 27.7%.

Intel’s 52-week range runs from $18.97 to $142.35, with a 50-day moving average of $118.84.