The 2026 FIFA World Cup has turned prediction markets into mainstream sports-finance venues, helping Polymarket post record or near-record figures across trading volume, active users, and open interest since the tournament began on June 11.
The surge underscores how sports prediction markets are increasingly competing with traditional sportsbooks for user attention and liquidity.
FIFA World Cup Boosts Polymarket Trading Volume and Open Interest
The FIFA World Cup has significantly boosted activity on Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market.
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According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket recorded more than $10.7 billion in trading volume during June, surpassing May by over $3.7 billion.
In June alone, Polymarket attracted more than 174.6K new users, 26.2% of its monthly 667.3K user base.
The platform’s open interest also climbed above $423 million during the month, reflecting increased participation and capital committed to active markets.
World Cup Winner Market Becomes One of Polymarket’s Largest Events
Polymarket’s dedicated World Cup Winner market has generated $4.25 billion in cumulative trading volume as of July 15, according to Polymarket data, making it one of the largest single-event contracts in the platform’s history.
Current odds place Spain as favorite at 58%, followed by England at 23% and Argentina at 20%. Spain defeated France in Tuesday’s semifinal, while England faced Argentina on July 15, with the winner advancing to the World Cup final on July 19.
Prediction Markets Gain Ground on Traditional Sports Betting Platforms
Polymarket wasn’t alone in cashing in. Rival prediction platform Kalshi reported more than $31 billion in June trading volume, roughly three times Polymarket’s total.
Combined prediction-market volume across major platforms reached $44.8 billion in June, representing a 75% increase month-over-month.
The surge has put prediction markets on a scale comparable to traditional sports betting operators.
FanDuel and DraftKings each project more than $1 billion in tournament-long handle, and licensed US sportsbook operators combined are expected to handle between $2.82 billion and $4.3 billion across the full World Cup — a figure Polymarket’s June volume alone already surpassed.
On the Flipside
- Polymarket faces a lawsuit in New York Supreme Court over a separate market’s resolution, raising questions about contract resolution integrity as volumes scale.
Why the FIFA World Cup Matters for Prediction Markets
The 2026 FIFA World Cup demonstrates how prediction markets are evolving into mainstream sports-finance platforms, with volumes now rivaling or exceeding traditional sportsbook activity. The scale of this growth signals a structural shift in how retail bettors engage with major sporting events in the US and beyond.
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