Bitcoin’s recovery to approximately $64,850 has increased the probability that the June low could develop into a broader market floor.
Price has moved above the 50-day moving average for the first time during the latest recovery attempt, although the available technical and onchain data does not yet confirm that a durable bottom is in place.
Glassnode data shows that long-term holder losses have started easing and buyers absorbed supply around the June lows. Bitcoin now faces a more demanding test between $66,000 and $68,400, where options positioning, profit-taking and the average cost basis of recent buyers converge.
Bitcoin’s bottom is still building, but its character is shifting.
That is Glassnode’s assessment, rather than confirmation that the cycle low is already established. The shift refers to cooling long-term holder capitulation, broad buying around the June lows and Bitcoin’s advance toward key cost-basis resistance, while the lack of sustained spot demand remains the missing confirmation.
Key Takeaways
- Long-term holder losses eased after exceeding $390 million daily.
- Bitcoin remains below $66,000 max pain and $68,400 break-even.
- June dip buyers are already realizing short-term profits.
- A sustained $68,400 reclaim would strengthen the bottoming case.
Bitcoin Reclaims the 50-Day Average
Bitcoin was trading near $64,850 at the time of writing, slightly above its declining 50-day simple moving average at approximately $64,115. A daily close above that level would mark an early technical improvement because the average has acted as resistance during the recovery from June’s low.
The daily Relative Strength Index stood near 55.7, above both the neutral 50 level and its signal line around 50.7. Momentum has therefore shifted in buyers’ favor without reaching overbought conditions, leaving room for further upside if demand continues.
The current move does not yet establish a broader trend reversal. Bitcoin remains below the falling 100-day average near $70,600 and the 200-day average around $73,500, creating substantial overhead resistance even if price clears the immediate $66,000-$68,400 cost-basis zone.
The distinction is important: reclaiming the 50-day average would confirm that the short-term structure is improving, while holding above $68,400 would show that the average recent buyer has moved back into profit. Bitcoin would need both developments to materially strengthen the case that the June low could become a durable market floor.
Four Signals Make a Bitcoin Bottom More Plausible
The first improvement came from Bitcoin’s response to the macro environment. Between July 9 and July 15, BTC gained approximately 5.1%, compared with roughly 1.3% for the S&P 500 and 0.4% for the Euro Stoxx 50. Crypto led the reaction rather than simply following equities.
The move accelerated after the U.S. Consumer Price Index declined 0.4% in June, while core prices were unchanged. The softer signal was reinforced by producer-price data released on July 15, which showed final-demand prices falling 0.3% after a 0.6% increase in May, while the annual rate slowed from 6.5% to 5.5%. Together, the reports reduced the immediate pressure for additional Federal Reserve tightening, although a 0.2% rise in service-sector producer prices showed that inflation had not weakened uniformly.
One inflation report cannot establish a lasting change in monetary conditions. Bitcoin’s stronger response nevertheless indicates that sellers had become less aggressive and that investors were prepared to add exposure when the macro backdrop improved.
The second signal comes from the Entity-Adjusted Long-Term Holder Realized Loss. The metric climbed above $390 million per day around its cycle peak before beginning to ease in the latest data.
A decline does not mean long-term holders have stopped selling. It means losses realized by that cohort are no longer accelerating at the same rate, reducing one of the main sources of supply that repeatedly interrupted Bitcoin’s earlier recovery attempts.
Bitcoin also remains above its realized price near $52,900. This metric estimates the market-wide cost basis by valuing each coin at the price when it last moved onchain. Trading above it suggests the aggregate supply remains in profit, separating the current structure from deeper capitulation phases in which BTC falls below the average cost basis of the entire network.
The realized price is a valuation reference rather than guaranteed support. Exchange activity, internal wallet transfers and Glassnode’s entity-clustering methodology mean it should not be treated as an exact record of what every investor paid.
The fourth signal is Bitcoin’s proximity to the aggregated options max-pain level at $66,000. BTC was trading approximately 2% below that threshold, placing price close to a level that Glassnode says has historically aligned with shifts toward a more constructive derivatives regime when sustainably reclaimed.
Max pain is not permanent resistance. It changes as options expire and traders adjust their positions, so its value lies in showing the current concentration of derivatives exposure rather than predicting where Bitcoin must settle.
June Buyers Are Supplying the Recovery
The principal counter-signal comes from short-term holders. Their realized profit on a 24-hour average has risen toward $4.5 million per day, reaching volumes last seen around the May market high. Long-term investors are still realizing losses at the same time, leaving two different cohorts selling into the recovery for different reasons.
The short-term holder activity appears contradictory because the average recent buyer remains underwater. Bitcoin was trading near $65,000, while the short-term holder cost basis stood around $68,400.
The profitable sellers are therefore not representative of every coin acquired during the previous 155 days. They are more likely concentrated among investors who bought near the June lows around $60,000 and can now lock in gains of roughly 8% before BTC reaches the broader cohort’s break-even level.
This connects the bullish and bearish readings. Buyers who absorbed supply during the June decline helped stabilize the market, but part of that same group is now returning coins to circulation. Their earlier demand supported the rebound; their profit-taking becomes additional resistance before underwater buyers are made whole.
Early buyers realizing gains is normal during a recovery and does not invalidate the possibility of a durable low. The question is whether new demand can replace them quickly enough to prevent their selling from exhausting the advance.
Three Seller Groups Sit Above Bitcoin
The resistance between current price and the upper cost-basis levels is not one technical barrier. Each stage is associated with a different source of potential supply:
- $66,000: The aggregated max-pain level, where current options positioning may affect short-term price behavior.
- $68,400: The short-term holder cost basis, where the average recent buyer returns to break-even.
- $76,400: The True Market Mean, which estimates the acquisition cost of economically active supply.
The structure is asymmetric from an onchain cost-basis perspective. Several significant holder and derivatives levels are positioned above BTC, while the market-wide realized price remains much farther below near $52,900.
That does not mean there is no support between $65,000 and the realized price. Previous range levels, trading volume and fresh accumulation can create demand around $60,000 or elsewhere. It means the cost-basis models do not identify an equally important aggregate holder threshold immediately beneath the market.
What Would Strengthen the Bottoming Scenario
A sustained daily close above $66,000 would clear the immediate options threshold. The stronger confirmation would be a subsequent reclaim of $68,400, followed by price holding that level as support.
Moving above the short-term holder cost basis would shift the average recent buyer from an unrealized loss into profit. It would also demonstrate that the market can absorb both profit-taking from June dip buyers and loss realization from investors who entered near the cycle highs.
A weekly close above the zone, supported by stronger spot volume and sustained spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, would make the bottoming interpretation more credible. Glassnode’s data shows that derivatives traders are reducing bearish exposure, but closing shorts and allowing downside hedges to expire is not equivalent to new spot capital entering the market.
The scenario would weaken if short-term holder profit-taking remains near May-peak levels while Bitcoin is rejected again around $66,000. Renewed acceleration in long-term holder losses would add a second warning that the available demand cannot absorb both seller groups.
Under that outcome, the recovery could become another lower high rather than the start of a trend reversal. The $52,900 realized price would remain the principal market-wide valuation anchor below, although Bitcoin could encounter intermediate support before reaching it.
Taken together, the data makes the possibility of a Bitcoin bottom more credible than it appeared during the June selloff, but the evidence remains incomplete. Selling pressure is no longer intensifying, the market remains above its aggregate cost basis and favorable macro news is attracting demand. The decisive test is whether BTC can reclaim the $66,000–$68,400 zone without the rally being exhausted by the investors who bought the June lows.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.
Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem.
To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem.
His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
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