Tuur Demeester is a Belgian economist, macro analyst, and founder of Adamant Research, the firm behind some of Bitcoin’s most closely followed cycle and valuation reports. His track record dates back to 2012, when he told subscribers of his newsletter to buy Bitcoin at $5.
That early call, followed by the 2021 sale of his hedge fund Adamant Capital to Blockstream, has made him one of the more closely watched voices in Bitcoin macro research heading into 2026.
Who is Tuur Demeester?
Long before Bitcoin existed, Demeester was steeped in Austrian economics. In 2006, he co-founded the Belgian Rothbard Institute, a research-focused think tank named for the economist Murray Rothbard, according to CryptoSlate.
Around the same period, he co-founded and worked as a staff member at De Kampanje, an independent Sudbury school in the Netherlands, a role CryptoSlate lists among his work before Bitcoin. The turning point came in 2011, when Demeester launched an investment newsletter called MacroTrends to share his macroeconomic research.
In 2012, with Bitcoin trading at $5, he told his readers to buy it, a call CryptoSlate credits as the start of his involvement with Bitcoin. He ran MacroTrends until November 2013, when he handed the newsletter to a successor and moved deeper into Bitcoin analysis full time.
Tuur Demeester’s Career and Contributions
Demeester’s shift from newsletter writer to fund manager came next. He founded Adamant Capital, a Bitcoin-focused hedge fund that CryptoSlate describes as reflecting his unconventional approach to investment, built on productive paranoia and academic rigor.
In 2019, as editor-in-chief of Adamant’s research arm, he published “The Bitcoin Reformation,” a report that Bitcoin Magazine says argued Bitcoin represented a structural shift in money with few historical precedents. In 2021, Blockstream acquired Adamant Capital’s Bitcoin fund, and Demeester stayed on as an advisor to the company, according to CoinDesk.
He has continued to lead Adamant Research since then, publishing macro and cycle reports for institutional and retail readers, and his path from newsletter writer to Blockstream advisor is one of several profiled on our crypto personalities page.
Tuur Demeester’s Views and Positions
Demeester’s outlook on money traces back to his Rothbard Institute years and the Austrian school of economics that shaped them. As early as 2013, with Bitcoin trading around $100, he told Bitcoin Magazine that the currency’s open-source design and resistance to confiscation made it well positioned to benefit if governments and banks faced a debt crisis. He called it “the greatest investment opportunity of our day and age.”
That framework has carried into his more recent work. In a December 2025 analysis covered by Traders Union, Demeester compared Bitcoin’s price to gold rather than the dollar, arguing that horizontal support levels matter more than diagonal trend lines when reading the chart. He pointed to support near 25.3 ounces of gold, or roughly $107,000, with additional support near $78,000 and $58,000 if the market weakens further.
Tuur Demeester in the News
Demeester’s most recent public analysis came in December 2025, when Traders Union covered his technical read on Bitcoin’s price relative to gold. He argued that the breach of a diagonal support line did not necessarily signal the end of the bull market, pointing instead to horizontal levels tied to gold’s price as the more reliable guide.
The piece followed an August 2025 Adamant Research report, also covered by Traders Union, in which Demeester projected that Bitcoin’s cycle peak could arrive sometime between January and September 2026 rather than ending sooner, based on his reading of on-chain and blockchain data.
Frequently Asked Questions
Need a refresher on Demeester? Here are the questions readers most often ask about him.
What did Tuur Demeester predict about Bitcoin’s cycle in 2026?
In an August 2025 report covered by Traders Union, Demeester projected that bitcoin’s cycle could peak sometime between January and September 2026, based on his reading of on-chain data rather than a fixed calendar date.
What is Adamant Research?
Adamant Research is the macroeconomic and Bitcoin research firm where Demeester serves as editor-in-chief. It grew out of his earlier hedge fund, Adamant Capital, and continues to publish cycle and valuation reports for institutional and retail readers.
Is it true that Tuur Demeester recommended Bitcoin at $5?
Yes. Multiple outlets, including CoinDesk and CryptoSlate, confirm that Demeester told subscribers of his MacroTrends newsletter to buy Bitcoin in 2012, when it was trading near $5.
Is Tuur Demeester still publishing Bitcoin research in 2026?
Yes. As of his most recent coverage in December 2025, Demeester continues to publish cycle and price analysis through Adamant Research, including reports picked up by Traders Union.
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