ASML Stock: Three Reasons Bernstein Just Set the Highest Target on the Street

TLDR

• ASML posted Q2 2026 results described as “triple happiness” — beating on revenue, capacity, and margins.
• Bernstein raised its price target to a Street-high €2,500, keeping an Outperform rating.
• Barclays raised its target to €2,400 from €2,000, reiterating Overweight.
• ASML raised full-year 2026 net sales guidance to €43B–€45B, up from €36B–€40B.
• Wedbush says the raised 2027 guidance is a positive for leading-edge logic and DRAM tied to AI demand.

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ASML reported second-quarter 2026 results that beat across the board, prompting multiple analyst upgrades and a flurry of raised price targets on Wednesday.

The stock was up more than 2% on Wednesday following the results, though it slipped 1.8% in premarket trading Thursday.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

Bernstein analyst David Dai raised his price target to €2,500 from €2,300 — now the highest on the Street — while keeping an Outperform rating. He called the quarter “triple happiness.”

Dai pointed to three drivers. First, ASML plans to boost Low NA EUV and ArFi capacity by 30% per year through 2027 and 2028. DUV capacity is expected to hit 220 units in 2028, above prior expectations.

Second, Bernstein sees pricing upside. EUV average selling prices are expected to rise 10% in 2027, based on management commentary that Low NA EUV throughput is up 45% year-over-year while capacity is up 30%. Another high-single-digit increase is expected in 2028.

Third, margins came in ahead of forecast. ASML guided for a gross margin of 56% in the second half of 2026, compared to the consensus estimate of 52.6%.

Bernstein lifted its 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates to €56 billion and €72 billion respectively. EPS estimates were raised to €53.6 and €75.3, with the 2028 figure sitting 37% above consensus.

Barclays Raises Target, Cites Margins and China Recovery

Barclays analyst Simon Coles also raised his price target, moving to €2,400 from €2,000, while reiterating an Overweight rating.

Coles said gross margins were “the major positive this quarter,” driven by a recovery in China DUV demand, improving EUV pricing, and a strong upgrades business.

Barclays raised its 2026 revenue estimates by 11% and 2027 estimates by 5%. The bank noted that ASML stock has risen roughly 150% since September 2025.

Full-Year 2026 Guidance Raised

ASML raised its full-year 2026 net sales guidance to between €43 billion and €45 billion. That compares to its prior range of €36 billion to €40 billion and comes in well above the analyst consensus of €39.3 billion.

The raised 2027 outlook also caught attention from Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson.

Bryson said the guidance increase, along with a potential rise in 2028 EUV builds, is “consistent with the strong demand we are seeing for both leading-edge logic and DRAM to support AI builds.”

He added that higher spending in 2027 is expected to drive increased output in late 2027 and into early 2028, particularly for memory. He noted some uncertainty around when supply will match demand, given continued growth in spend.

ASML now expects full-year 2026 total net sales of €43B–€45B, against a prior forecast of €36B–€40B and above the €39.3B average estimate.