TLDR
- Short sellers have made an estimated $8.7 billion in paper profits since SpaceX’s IPO last month
- SPCX stock dropped below its IPO price of $135 for the first time on Wednesday before recovering
- Around 49% of SpaceX’s free float is currently out on loan, with most believed to be short positions
- 31% of SPCX stock is sold short — compared to just 1% for Nvidia
- Wall Street analysts still rate SPCX a consensus Strong Buy with an average price target of $247.32
SpaceX stock (SPCX) was trading at around $136.28 on Thursday, just above its IPO price of $135, after briefly falling below that level the day before. The stock has dropped 10% over the past week and is now down 16% from its IPO debut.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Short sellers have been pressing their bets the entire way down. Since the stock peaked at $225.64 shortly after going public, bears kept adding to their positions rather than locking in gains.
“SpaceX has been a rollercoaster for the short sellers, and it has ended up firmly in their favor,” said Peter Hillerberg, co-founder of Ortex Technologies. “Rather than take profits, the bears kept adding the whole way down.”
According to Ortex, nearly half of SpaceX’s tradable stock — about 49% of the free float — is now out on loan. The firm believes the vast majority of that represents short positions.
That 31% short interest is striking for any stock, let alone a company that only went public last month.
Why Bears Are Piling In
SpaceX’s IPO prospectus revealed the company is not yet profitable. It posted a $4.9 billion loss in 2025 and a $4.3 billion loss in just the first quarter of this year. With a market valuation sitting at $1.78 trillion, short sellers are betting the financials don’t justify the price tag.
Investor concern over debt-funded AI spending has also weighed on the stock.
SpaceX is due to report its first quarterly earnings as a public company in early August. That will be the first real test of whether the numbers can support the valuation.
The size of the short position adds a layer of risk in both directions. Ortex estimates that every dollar move in SPCX is worth more than $300 million to the short side. That math cuts both ways — a sharp rally could trigger a painful short squeeze.
Bulls Still See Upside
Not everyone is betting against SpaceX. Among 28 Wall Street analysts, SPCX holds a consensus Strong Buy rating, based on 23 Buy calls, four Holds, and one Sell.
The average price target of $247.32 implies roughly 83% upside from current levels.
Retail and institutional demand for the stock remains strong, and CEO Elon Musk has a well-documented history of going to war with short sellers.
SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment. On Thursday, SPCX was up about 1% at $136.28.
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