AST SpaceMobile vs. Rocket Lab: Which Space Stock Has More Room to Grow?

TLDR

• Rocket Lab earned roughly $200 million in one quarter; AST SpaceMobile expects $150–$200 million for all of 2026
• Piper Sandler initiated coverage on both, rating AST SpaceMobile Overweight with a $100 price target
• Rocket Lab received a Neutral rating with an $83 price target from analyst Alexander Potter
• AST SpaceMobile has over $1 billion in contracted commitments from wireless carriers
• Rocket Lab holds a $2 billion+ backlog and a 33% gross margin; AST SpaceMobile’s gross margin is deeply negative

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Two space stocks are grabbing attention on Wall Street this week. AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are both in the space business, but they are at very different stages.

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter initiated coverage on both stocks Thursday, and both fell sharply on the news. AST SpaceMobile dropped around 18%, and Rocket Lab fell roughly 13%.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

What Piper Sandler Said

Potter gave AST SpaceMobile an Overweight rating with a $100 price target. That implies about 78% upside from current prices. He said the company has a clearer path to EBITDA growth than its peers and a better risk-reward profile.

He started Rocket Lab at Neutral with an $83 price target, suggesting about 22% upside. Potter called Rocket Lab the strongest alternative to SpaceX, crediting CEO Peter Beck for building a vertically integrated business.

Even so, Potter said Rocket Lab’s recent share-price gains have already priced in a lot of the good news. He expects its valuation to track closely with SpaceX over the next year.

The Revenue Gap

The clearest difference between these two companies comes down to one number: revenue.

Rocket Lab pulled in roughly $200 million in a single quarter earlier this year, up more than 60% year over year. AST SpaceMobile guided for just $150–$200 million for the entire year of 2026.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., RKLB

AST’s most recent quarterly revenue was about $15 million. That is a fraction of what Rocket Lab earns in the same period.

Rocket Lab runs two revenue streams — launch services and satellite manufacturing — and carries a backlog of over $2 billion. AST SpaceMobile is just now switching on commercial service after years of building its satellite network.

AST SpaceMobile does have over $1 billion in contracted commitments from wireless carriers. Its model targets a global consumer market, delivering broadband directly to ordinary phones via satellite. If that scales, the revenue potential is large.

But scaling is still the question. Rocket Lab has proven it can sell what it makes. AST SpaceMobile is still asking investors to trust that the demand will follow.

Where Wall Street Stands

Despite Potter’s preference for AST SpaceMobile, the broader Wall Street consensus tells a different story.

Rocket Lab carries a Strong Buy consensus rating on TipRanks. AST SpaceMobile holds a Hold rating. The average price target for Rocket Lab is $111.40, implying about 66% upside. AST SpaceMobile’s average target of $87.80 implies around 59% upside.

Neither company is consistently profitable yet. Both sit in speculative territory.

Rocket Lab is the more established business today. AST SpaceMobile carries more risk but a higher potential ceiling if its network delivers.