AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Stock Has Had a Rough Few Months — Analyst Says Buy the Dip

TLDR

• B. Riley analyst Mike Crawford upgraded ASTS to Buy from Hold, keeping his $85 price target unchanged.
• AST stock hit a high of $133.86 in May but has fallen more than 50% since then.
• The stock dropped 17% Thursday after AST announced a $1 billion convertible bond sale.
• Only 21% of analysts rate ASTS a Buy, well below the S&P 500 average of 55–60%.
• SpaceX competition and satellite orbit access remain key concerns for investors.

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AST SpaceMobile stock is trading around $55–$57, down more than 50% from its May peak of $133.86. The drop has come fast, and one analyst thinks the selloff has gone far enough.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

B. Riley’s Mike Crawford upgraded ASTS to Buy from Hold on Friday, keeping his price target at $85. Crawford had downgraded the stock back in January when it was trading near $100. With the price now cut roughly in half, he sees the risk/reward as more favorable.

AST stock was up around 0.7% to $55.37 on Friday, while the S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the Dow dropped 0.8%.

The upgrade came with no price target change — a clear signal that the analyst’s view on the company hasn’t changed, just the entry point.

The $1 Billion Bond Sale That Spooked Investors

The sharpest single-day drop came Thursday, when AST fell 17% after announcing a $1 billion private offering of convertible senior notes. The notes carry an initial conversion price of just under $80 per share — a roughly 20% premium to where the stock was trading before the announcement.

Convertible notes can eventually become stock, which dilutes existing investors. On top of that, some buyers of convertible debt short the underlying stock to isolate the bond-like return, adding more selling pressure.

Critics noted that AST had been trading above $130 as recently as late May. Raising capital now, at a much lower conversion price, means more dilution than if the deal had been done weeks earlier.

AST said proceeds will fund growth and help “secure additional access to orbit” for its space-based cellular broadband network.

SpaceX Is the Bigger Problem

While the bond sale grabbed headlines, the competition from SpaceX may be the more pressing issue. Starlink already has a large fleet of deployed satellites and controls significant access to orbit — the very thing AST needs more of.

SpaceX closed below its $135 IPO price for the first time on Thursday, a sign that some of the broader space-sector enthusiasm has cooled.

A year ago, 67% of analysts rated ASTS a Buy. That figure has fallen to just 21%, well below the 55–60% typical for S&P 500 stocks. The average analyst price target sits near $87, close to Crawford’s $85.