Why AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Stock Surged 5% on Friday

TLDR

• ASTS rose 5.1% Friday, trading as high as $61.67 on volume 62% above average
• B. Riley upgraded the stock to Buy with an $85 price target after a 44% six-month slide
• ASTS priced $1B in convertible senior notes due 2034, with capped calls pushing effective conversion to $149.20
• BlueBird 10 satellite array successfully deployed; BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 set for SpaceX Falcon 9 launch in early August
• Analyst consensus sits at “Hold” with an average price target of $86.95; nearly 60 carrier commitments and $1.2B+ in signed agreements remain in place

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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) jumped 5.1% on Friday, with the stock touching $61.67 intraday before closing at $57.80. Volume hit 30.2 million, up 62% from its daily average.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

The catalyst? B. Riley upgraded ASTS to Buy from Neutral, slapping an $85 price target on the stock. Analyst Mike Crawford pointed to a favorable risk/reward setup after the stock had fallen 44% over the past six months.

Crawford’s upgrade came right after AST priced $1 billion in 1.625% convertible senior notes due 2034. The deal also included a potential additional $150 million tranche.

The company executed capped call transactions that lift the effective conversion price from $79.57 to $149.20. B. Riley models this as pushing deployable cash above $3.4 billion by end of Q3.

AST exited Q2 with more than $2.7 billion in cash. Crawford views the company as fully funded to deploy its global SpaceMobile direct-to-device constellation.

On the satellite side, AST successfully deployed the 2,400 square foot array of its BlueBird 10 satellite. BlueBird 8 and 9 arrays are expected to follow shortly.

BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 are slated for launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 in early August. The company is in production and assembly through BlueBird 37.

The Headwinds

The week wasn’t all positive. The convertible note pricing initially sparked dilution concerns, and the company disclosed a delay in its commercial satellite service timeline.

Broader weakness in space stocks — partly tied to SpaceX-related headlines — also weighed on sentiment earlier in the week.

Last quarter’s earnings didn’t help either. ASTS reported a loss of $0.66 per share, missing the $0.23 consensus by a wide margin. Revenue came in at $14.73 million against expectations of $39.01 million.

Where Analysts Stand

Piper Sandler also upgraded ASTS to Strong Buy. Deutsche Bank moved in the opposite direction, cutting its rating to Hold and lowering its target from $117 to $106.

UBS holds a Neutral rating with an $80 target. Barclays has an Underweight rating and a $65 target.

The overall consensus is “Hold” with an average price target of $86.95, still well above Friday’s close.

On the institutional side, Vodafone Ventures picked up a new stake worth roughly $397 million in Q4. Vanguard raised its position by 7.9% to over 21.4 million units.

Insiders have been selling. The CTO sold 40,000 units in early June at $96.37, cutting his position by 53.5%. Total insider sales over the past three months totalled 105,809 units valued at approximately $9.7 million.

ASTS still holds commitments from nearly 60 global carriers and has more than $1.2 billion in signed agreements.