US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen a fresh wave of buying, with net inflows returning for a second straight week. However, traders and analysts say the pace of demand is still not strong enough to confirm that the rebound is turning into a durable trend.
According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded $75.7 million in net inflows for the week ending July 17. This followed $197.4 million in net inflows the prior week, lifting total inflows for July to $200.2 million.
Key takeaways
- SoSoValue data shows US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows for two consecutive weeks, totaling $200.2 million for July so far.
- Analysts caution that even multiple inflow days may only indicate easing selling pressure—not broad, sustained institutional buying.
- Bitcoin’s recovery has not yet produced the decisive price breakout some analysts say is needed to validate a new uptrend.
- Citi’s latest stance remains cautious, cutting its 12-month Bitcoin ETF inflow forecast to zero and lowering its Bitcoin price target.
- ETF analysts compare the product cycle to gold ETFs: rapid adoption followed by longer stretches of weaker performance.
ETFs return to inflows, but momentum remains limited
The renewed inflow streak comes after a difficult period. Cointelegraph previously reported that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, leaving 2026 total net flows still negative at $5.2 billion. In that context, July’s partial rebound matters, but it hasn’t erased the bigger picture of persistent withdrawals.
Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, told Cointelegraph that the return of inflows suggests selling pressure is easing. Yet he stressed that the current buying rhythm does not necessarily signal a broad institutional return.
“Four consecutive sessions of inflows should be interpreted as a sign that selling pressure is easing, rather than clear evidence that institutional investors have returned on a broad scale,” Massabni said, referring to the daily ETF flow data from last week.
Why the market still needs more than “a few green days”
Massabni connected the ETF flow improvement to Bitcoin’s price action. Bitcoin has recovered toward $64,000 after falling from higher levels seen in June, but the move has not yet met the threshold he associates with a convincing reversal.
He argued that Bitcoin needs to “decisively break above the $65,000–$65,500 range” to confirm a new uptrend. In his view, the recovery still “lacks real strength,” implying that spot demand visible through ETFs must align with broader market conviction.
From an investor’s perspective, this distinction is important: inflow streaks can reflect short-term positioning and relief from prior selling, while sustained, higher-volume inflows typically correlate better with durable trend changes. Readers watching the next leg of ETF flows will likely want to see whether weekly inflows continue to scale upward, rather than merely alternating with quieter periods.
Citi turns more cautious as institutional demand remains in question
While ETF flows have improved recently, Citi’s updated outlook underscores how uneven the institutional picture still appears. Massabni pointed to Citi’s revision to its Bitcoin ETF expectations, which he said is rooted in concerns about the strength of institutional demand.
On July 1, Citi cut its 12-month ETF inflow forecast from $10 billion to zero after weaker-than-expected flows and recent outflows. The bank also lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000.
Massabni argued that the market may not lack reasons to buy, but what remains missing is a sufficiently strong driver. “The market does not lack reasons to start buying Bitcoin,” he said, “what is still missing is a sufficiently strong catalyst—most likely a flow of capital large and persistent enough to turn the current rebound into a genuine trend.”
ETF cycles may resemble gold: fast adoption, then long drawdowns
Another lens on the current setup comes from ETF industry comparisons. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has likened Bitcoin ETF behavior to that of gold ETFs, noting that both products saw rapid adoption followed by extended stretches of weaker performance.
In a post on X on Friday, Balchunas said Bitcoin ETFs may follow a similar pattern of “spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries,” and that each cycle could potentially set higher highs over time. The point for investors is not that drawdowns are inevitable, but that ETF performance can be nonlinear—driven by waves of positioning rather than straight-line progress.
As July inflows accumulate, the market will likely test whether this resembles the “recovery” phase of prior cycles or whether it remains a modest rebound inside a broader period of net outflows.
What to watch next for Bitcoin ETFs and the broader trend
For now, the most immediate indicators are whether weekly inflows persist and whether Bitcoin can clear the $65,000–$65,500 zone that Massabni highlighted as a confirmation level. The next few weeks of ETF flow data will show whether July’s demand is just a pause in selling or the start of a more sustained institutional bid.
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