Expert Says XRP Could Fall to Negative $5 in Long Term

Crypto investor Mike Alfred has ignited fresh debate across the digital asset community after sharing an unusually bearish long-term outlook for XRP.

In a post on X, Alfred revealed that he expects Bitcoin (BTC) to eventually reach a long-term target of $1.5 million per coin and Ethereum (ETH) to climb to $31,500. However, he offered a dramatically different outlook for XRP.

Instead of predicting gains, Alfred remarked that his long-term target for XRP is “negative $5 per coin.” Since cryptocurrencies cannot trade below zero in practice, market participants interpreted the statement as sarcasm and an expression of extreme bearishness rather than a literal price forecast.

Alfred’s View Clashes With Growing $5 XRP Narrative

Alfred’s comments come as the $5 XRP target continues to gain traction among analysts and members of the XRP community.

In 2024, crypto analyst Altcoin Moe predicted that XRP would reach $5 during the 2025 bull market. Although XRP delivered a strong rally, it peaked at around $3.65, falling short of that milestone.

Earlier this year, Korean market analyst Ninedex argued that XRP’s ascending channel pattern could drive the asset to $5. He also suggested that a stronger breakout could eventually propel the token toward $20.

Meanwhile, a community-produced research paper proposed another bullish scenario. According to the document, growing institutional adoption of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin could indirectly increase demand for XRP by facilitating large-scale XRP purchases. 

Supporters believe such activity could help the token move beyond the $5 mark. However, this theory remains a community hypothesis rather than an established market mechanism.

Against this backdrop, Alfred’s “negative $5” target stands in stark contrast to the increasingly optimistic sentiment surrounding XRP. Many market observers have therefore viewed his remark as an intentionally exaggerated expression of skepticism rather than a realistic valuation.

While the target remains speculative, several analysts and community members continue to argue that favorable market conditions, broader crypto adoption, and increased institutional participation could make such a move achievable over the long term.

On-Chain Data Continues to Support Bullish Sentiment

Despite Alfred’s bearish commentary, XRP supporters continue to highlight several encouraging on-chain indicators.

One of the strongest bullish signals is the continued withdrawal of XRP from centralized exchanges. Investors generally interpret declining exchange balances as a sign that holders are transferring tokens into long-term storage instead of preparing to sell.

Recently, Binance’s XRP reserves declined to a five-month low of 2.6 billion XRP. At the same time, Coinbase recorded a five-month extreme net outflow of 13,000 XRP, suggesting that accumulation activity remains intact.

In another positive development, the XRP Ledger recently surpassed 8 million activated accounts for the first time since its launch more than 13 years ago. Many community members regard this milestone as further evidence of the network’s expanding user base, growing ecosystem activity, and continued long-term adoption, reinforcing the bullish outlook held by many XRP supporters despite Alfred’s pessimistic stance.  

In the meantime, XRP trades at $1.08 and boasts a market cap of $68.11 billion.