What to know:
- SpaceX stock has dropped about 44% from its $225 peak to around $122, falling below its $135 IPO price.
- The company will report Q2 earnings on August 4, with investors closely watching Starlink, Starship, AI projects, and financial performance.
- A 911.5 million-share insider unlock worth roughly $109.2 billion is scheduled two days after earnings, raising concerns about added selling pressure.
SpaceX stock has declined considerably below its IPO peak ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings results. At this point, market experts are more concerned about an impending massive share unlock by insiders, which may drive further selling.
As reported on July 21, 2026, by the crypto analyst CryptoGoos, the SpaceX stock has fallen from its peak level of $225 to approximately $122, showing a fall of almost 44%. The fall has resulted in the loss of market capitalization of over $1 trillion and taken the share price below its IPO price of $135.
SpaceX Stock Faces Pressure Before Earnings
The next quarter results of SpaceX will come out after market hours on August 4, 2026. This will mark the first earnings announcement of the firm after its successful IPO in June and therefore marks a significant occasion for investors.
The quarterly report is expected to give insights into the revenues, earnings, cash flow, and strategies of the firm in the future. Starlink, Starship, and artificial intelligence-related projects will also be a point of interest for the investors.
This is because the announcement of earnings comes during an unfavorable period for the stock price. The SpaceX stock has fallen from its high point, which it enjoyed after its initial public offering.
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Large Share Unlock Could Add Selling Pressure
Another important event is the first major unlocking of insider shares by the firm.
SpaceX made its market debut on June 12, when it conducted an IPO worth $75 billion. However, only 5% of all the shares issued by SpaceX became tradable. This small availability of shares contributed to the growth of the stock price up to the record high level.
Two days after the earnings announcement on August 4, 911.5 million insider shares will be unlocked. Using the price per share of $119.85, it can be estimated that the value of these shares is $109.2 billion.
Unlocked shares account for approximately 20% of the eligible insider shares. 10% more insider shares will remain locked as the stocks have not yet met the target price required to unlock them.
Further insider unlocks are scheduled to happen this year, whereas those held by Elon Musk, who is the largest shareholder, and other executives will remain locked till June 2027.
SpaceX Stock Awaits Key Earnings Test
Besides the stock unlocking, investors are expected to monitor the business performance of the firm carefully.
Areas that will be key include Starlink subscriber growth, revenue per user, profitability of the Falcon 9 rocket launches, Starship development costs, and investments in the AI system after the merger with xAI.
Since SpaceX still commands a high valuation, the guidance that SpaceX will provide on the remainder of the year could be very crucial to its share movement going forward.
Good performance by the company, together with a clear route to generating more cash, could help to boost its shares. However, poor performance coupled with a sharp rise in the number of shares outstanding could be negative for SpaceX shares.
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