Intel (INTC) Stock: What Wall Street Expects From Earnings Thursday

TLDR

• Intel reports Q2 earnings Thursday after the bell, with options traders pricing in a move of up to 12% in either direction.
• Analysts expect Q2 revenue of ~$14.44 billion (up ~12% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.21–$0.22.
• Intel announced fresh layoffs in its Data Center Group just days before the print.
• Wall Street consensus is a ‘Hold’ with an average price target of $113.72, implying ~17% upside from recent levels.
• Price targets range wildly — from $65 (Rosenblatt Sell) to $200 (HSBC) — reflecting deep disagreement on the turnaround.

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Intel (INTC) stock has rallied more than 160% since the start of 2026, but it has pulled back over 30% from last month’s highs. As of Monday’s close, the stock sat around $97.06, and traders are braced for a big move either way after Thursday’s results.

Intel Corp., INTC

Options pricing suggests a swing of up to 12% by end of week. That puts a bull case near $109 and a bear case below $86.

The setup heading into earnings is more complicated than usual. Just days before the report, Intel confirmed another round of layoffs inside its Data Center Group — the division at the center of its AI strategy. The company said the cuts are part of a “broader strategy” to become more focused and efficient.

That announcement landed awkwardly. The Data Center Group is where Intel is supposed to be competing against Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) for AI infrastructure dollars. Cutting headcount there, right before earnings, is the kind of move that demands explanation from management.

Wall Street is split on what to make of it. Consensus from 36 analysts sits at a ‘Hold,’ with 10 Buys and 2 Sells. The average 12-month price target is $113.72.

But the range is unusually wide.

Analyst Price Targets Span a Wide Range

KeyBanc has the most aggressive bull case among major banks, raising its target to $155, citing strong server CPU demand tied to agentic AI, improving yields on Intel’s 18A process, and expanding foundry capacity.

HSBC went even further, lifting its target to $200 from $100. The firm sees the recent pullback as a buying opportunity and points to Intel’s track record of beating revenue estimates.

Citi kept its Buy rating and $130 target, expecting Intel’s CPU business to gain from rising AI demand through the end of the decade.

Susquehanna’s Christopher Rolland raised his target from $80 to $115. He expects a solid quarter driven by server processor demand but flagged caution on the second half — higher memory prices could weigh on PC demand.

UBS lifted its target to $121 from $83, telling clients it sees strong data center hardware demand potentially supporting higher prices.

On the other end, Rosenblatt’s Kevin Cassidy raised his target to $65 from $50 but kept a Sell rating. He expects healthy CPU demand but believes manufacturing execution risks cap the upside.

What the Earnings Call Needs to Deliver

The numbers themselves — consensus calls for $14.44 billion in revenue and $0.21 adjusted EPS — may matter less than what CEO Lip-Bu Tan says about what comes next.

Investors want clarity on three things: the AI and foundry roadmap, whether the latest restructuring is the last of it, and how Intel plans to close the gap with Nvidia and AMD in the data center.

Intel has spent much of 2026 trying to rebuild credibility. The turnaround effort under Tan has driven a sharp recovery in the stock, but it has also raised the bar.

If management can frame the latest layoffs as cleanup rather than crisis, and reinforce the AI and foundry story with specifics, the stock could hold its gains. If the tone is defensive, the 12% downside scenario comes into play quickly.

Intel reports after the bell Thursday, July 23.