SAND is clearly maintaining the LH/LL structure within a downtrend and is moving in a limited range around $0.08. As long as no BOS is made above the $0.0789 resistance, the bearish structure will continue, and a break of the $0.0731 support could accelerate the decline.
Market Structure Overview
SAND’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern formed in the recent period indicates dominant bearish momentum. The price is stuck in a limited range at the $0.08 level, under negative pressure with a 24-hour change of -3.79%. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, and resistance is positioned at $0.09. Trading below EMA20 ($0.08) confirms the short-term structure is also bearish. RSI at 40.96 is in the neutral zone, and the MACD histogram remains neutral around zero. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects 14 strong levels across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 3 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, 3S/4R on 1W. This distribution emphasizes the magnitude of resistance for upward movement and the criticality of supports below. The market is sustaining the down channel along with Bitcoin correlation, influenced by general altcoin pressure. A strong bullish BOS is necessary for a constructive change (CHoCH).
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
There is no clear signal yet for a higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern. Although there was upward movement from the last swing low at $0.0769, it was not confirmed as a higher low because there is an immediate $0.0789 LH resistance above it. For bullish continuation, closes above $0.0823 and $0.1364 resistances are required. Above these levels, the HH/HL structure is re-established, opening the $0.1107 target. However, at the current $0.08 price, remaining below EMA20 and if RSI does not drop below 40, upward momentum will stay weak. A short-term HL formation is possible at $0.0769, but trend change is speculative without breaking the LHs.
Downtrend Risk
The downtrend is strengthened with LH/LL: The last swing high at $0.0789 formed as an LH, and swing lows $0.0769 > $0.0731 > $0.0702 sequentially confirm LLs. This structure dictates movement within the bearish channel. A break of the $0.0731 support (71/100 score) opens the path to $0.0702 (68/100) with BOS and triggers the $0.0410 bearish target. Even though MACD is neutral, risk increases if the histogram shifts negative. On the 1W timeframe, 4 resistances keep the downside potential high.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) levels are critical: For bearish BOS, a close below the $0.0731 swing low is sufficient, extending LH/LL and targeting $0.0702. Bullish BOS starts with a daily close above the $0.0789 (66/100) resistance, followed by $0.0823 BOS signaling CHoCH. Above $0.1364 confirms full trend reversal. These levels are strong in MTF: Resistance weight on 1D makes 3D/1W supports vulnerable. Without BOS, the range continues, with $0.08-$0.0769 possible.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Recent swing highs form the LH pattern: $0.0789 (66/100) is the most critical; no bullish BOS without breaking it. $0.0823 (64/100) is the next LH, above it starts HH. $0.1364 (64/100) is a long-term major high, 1W resistance in MTF. These points represent the ceiling of the downtrend; rejections on tests ensure bearish continuation.
Recent Swing Lows
Swing lows indicate LLs: $0.0731 (71/100) primary support, break is bearish BOS. $0.0702 (68/100) secondary, $0.0769 (64/100) short-term. These levels are strong on 1D/1W; if they hold, a range forms; if broken, $0.0410 is targeted. Monitor these swings for SAND Spot Analysis and SAND Futures Analysis.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin at $69,037 with -2.28% decline is pressuring altcoins, and SAND has experienced more decline against BTC (-3.79%). Unless BTC key supports/resistances are specified, staying below $69k strengthens SAND’s LH/LL. If BTC dominance rises, SAND approaches bearish targets ($0.0410). BTC recovery above $70k could trigger SAND’s $0.0823 BOS; with correlation over 80%, watch BTC.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
The current LH/LL structure maintains the downtrend, $0.0789 BOS on hold. Bearish scenario: Break of $0.0731 to $0.0410. Bullish: Above $0.0823 to $0.1107. MTF resistance weight favors range or downside. Strong volume BOS required for CHoCH. Market structures are dynamic; follow for real-time updates. (Word count: ~1050)
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
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