When will the Bitcoin bear market end? This might be the biggest question investors are asking this cycle.
The tricky part is that on-chain metrics and historical trends are currently pointing in different directions. From an on-chain perspective, the end of the bear cycle could be closer than many expect.
One analyst highlighted that long-term Bitcoin holders have almost stopped taking profits, while sell-side pressure has eased for the first time since September 2025. This lines up with CryptoQuant data showing 9,030 BTC leaving Binance, pointing to improving Spot demand.
Together, seller exhaustion and renewed demand suggest Bitcoin could be moving closer to a potential cycle bottom.
Adding more context, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index is showing another interesting trend.
Notably, the negative Coinbase Premium suggests U.S. institutional investors are still net sellers, with Coinbase seeing continuous selling pressure for 900 consecutive hours, the highest level of pessimism in the past two years.
However, the indicator has reached extreme levels, which CryptoQuant notes has historically acted as a bullish signal for Bitcoin.
In short, seller exhaustion is now showing up across multiple metrics. This lines up with Bitcoin’s [BTC] four weeks of upside, strengthening the case that the bear cycle may be behind us.
With BTC consolidating around $65k, the current setup could pave the way for a move toward $70k as we head into August.
However, “timing” is still the missing piece.
Bitcoin bottom debate heats up
Timing has always mattered more than patterns, according to some analysts.
However, historical data shows these patterns are not random. Bitcoin has historically completed a 5-wave correction during major bear markets, a structure seen in 2015, 2018, and 2022. This cycle has followed a similar pattern, suggesting a potential bottom could be forming.
The main concern, however, is timing. Previous bear markets lasted 365 days, while this cycle would have bottomed nearly 100 days earlier.
Recent Grayscale data adds to this caution, with analysts suggesting that if the traditional four-year cycle repeats, BTC’s bear market could continue until September or October.
Against this backdrop, some analysts believe Bitcoin’s recent upside could be just a dead cat bounce.
Notably, the gap between improving on-chain signals and cycle timing has left even analysts like Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, uncertain about the Bitcoin bottom thesis, responding with a simple “we’ll see.”
This uncertainty keeps the bear market bottom debate open.
Hence, if historical timing plays out (a view many market participants still follow), Bitcoin could see another leg down before the bear cycle ends, supporting Grayscale’s late Q3-early Q4 timeline for a potential bottom.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s selling pressure is fading, suggesting the bottom could be closer.
- History shows Bitcoin bear markets usually take longer to end, meaning another drop is still possible.
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