CLARITY Act Passage Odds Drop to 30% as Ethics Debate Grows

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The Senate’s new CLARITY Act text has triggered fresh debate as lawmakers race to secure 60 votes before the August recess.

Senate Releases Updated CLARITY Act Text

Senators released a more than 600-page version of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act this week. The latest draft combines work from Senate Banking and Agriculture committees while adding revised ethics language.

The proposal seeks to create a federal market structure for digital assets. Republican lawmakers said the bill would give consumers, businesses, and markets clearer rules for crypto trading and digital commodities.

Senator Cynthia Lummis said, “The U.S. has always been at the forefront of financial innovation.” She added that the coming weeks may be the last real chance for years to pass the bill.

Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman also backed the measure. He said the legislation creates “a clear, regulatory framework for digital commodities” while adding safeguards for consumers and markets.

Democrats Challenge Ethics and Enforcement Language

The latest draft includes an ethics agreement negotiated by Lummis, Senator Bernie Moreno, and the White House. However, the language has not secured support from several Democratic senators needed for passage.

A group of Democratic negotiators said the current text still falls short on ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest, and market integrity. They said they will continue talks but want stronger provisions before backing the bill.

Senators Catherine Cortez Masto, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, Mark Warner, and Raphael Warnock said the Republican proposal needs more work. They said,

“Key provisions including those addressing ethics for elected officials, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity must be strengthened.”

The enforcement structure remains one of the main disputes. Democrats have raised concerns over whether the bill gives enough authority outside federal agencies, while Republicans continue pushing to move the process forward.

Banks, Crypto Groups Split Over Bill

Traditional financial institutions remain divided over the CLARITY Act. Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon supported moving the bill forward, saying,

“I’m very supportive of moving the Clarity Act forward.”

The Bank Policy Institute took a different view. The group said the text still does not address concerns tied to Main Street credit, illicit finance, and national security.

Financial inclusion has also entered the debate. The U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce warned that reduced community bank lending could hurt Hispanic entrepreneurs and widen gaps in access to capital.

The bill includes language on self-hosted wallets and access for underserved communities. Critics argue the draft does not create direct programs or tools to expand financial access.

Crypto trade groups are urging Senate leaders to begin floor consideration before the August recess. The Crypto Council for Innovation, Blockchain Association, and The Digital Chamber sent a joint letter asking leaders to prioritize the bill.

Galaxy Research cut its estimated odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% less than a month ago. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn said, “The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle. It is now the enemy.”

Thorn said the coalition needed to pass the bill is not yet visible. He also said the measure now needs a “last-ditch effort” and stronger leadership to reach President Donald Trump’s desk.

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said the biggest barrier is procedure. He said,

“If it gets to the floor, it’s going to pass.”