SUI’s recovery remains under pressure as scheduled token releases continue expanding the circulating supply. Although token unlocks follow the project’s vesting plan, they can influence market sentiment when prices remain far below previous highs.
Against that backdrop, another 13.72 million Sui [SUI] worth $9.76 million will unlock on the 1st of August. This follows 22.6 million tokens released across four events during the past 30 days.
Early contributors receive 7.65 million SUI. Meanwhile, the community reserve and Mysten Labs treasury unlock 4 million and 2.07 million, respectively. Still, the project has completed 40.6% of its vesting schedule, leaving further releases ahead.
Can support withstand new supply?
While the upcoming unlock highlights potential supply pressure, price action suggests investors have not reacted with broad panic. Instead, SUI continues consolidating after its recent recovery attempt. This indicates that the market is waiting for fresh direction.
The token rebounded from the $0.70 support zone to a local high near $0.7875 by the 21st of July before retracing to $0.7183. Despite the retracement, the token traded near $0.7193, posting a 1.7% daily gain at press time.
Moreover, the recent decline developed gradually rather than through aggressive selling, suggesting buyers continue to defend key levels. RSI has cooled to 43.59 after approaching 60, reflecting fading momentum without signaling capitulation.
Likewise, the MACD histogram has flattened, while the MACD and signal lines continue converging instead of producing a decisive bearish crossover. As a result, that leaves $0.70 as the critical support.
Holding it would preserve the broader recovery structure despite weakening momentum. However, losing that level could expose $0.6492, whereas reclaiming $0.7875 would confirm buyers are regaining control after the recent consolidation phase.
Derivatives markets signal caution
While recent token unlocks increased circulating supply, SUI’s Spot trading volume has fallen to 47.7 million. This marked one of its lowest levels over the past year.
This decline indicates that selling pressure is easing despite additional supply entering circulation. Notably, exchange inflows and reserves have stayed relatively stable. This indicates that most of the newly released tokens are currently being held off exchanges.
Meanwhile, Open Interest near $495 million and neutral funding rates reflect balanced positioning. Sustained positive Spot CVD could help defend $0.70 and support another move toward $0.7875, while weaker demand would increase downside risks.
Final Summary
- Sui faces fresh token supply, with $0.70 remaining the key support for its recovery.
- SUI needs stronger Spot demand to reclaim $0.7875, while balanced derivatives keep downside risks contained.
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