Palantir (PLTR) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings August 3

TLDR

• Oppenheimer expects Palantir to beat Q2 estimates with 84–85% YoY revenue growth, above the 79% guidance midpoint
• US Government revenue growth forecast in the low 80s%, driven by DHS spending and Middle East conflict
• US Commercial segment expected to grow at least 135% YoY
• Oppenheimer maintains Outperform rating with a $200 price target, implying 58% upside
• PLTR stock edged up 5% on Monday; the stock is down 29% year-to-date

---

Palantir (PLTR) rose 5% on Monday as Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh laid out a bullish case ahead of the company’s Q2 earnings report on August 3.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

Singh expects Palantir to beat its Q2 revenue forecast by a healthy margin. His estimate sits at 84–85% year-over-year growth, compared to management’s guidance midpoint of 79%.

The outperformance call comes despite PLTR being down 29% so far this year, weighed down by valuation concerns and rising competition from generative AI players.

Singh says Palantir was “relatively immune” to the deal delays that hit other software companies during Q2. That’s a claim worth watching when numbers drop.

On the guidance front, Oppenheimer expects Palantir to raise its full-year outlook to more than 75% growth, up from the current 71% forecast.

Consensus estimates have Palantir reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.35 and revenue of $1.81B. That compares to EPS of $0.16 and revenue of $1B in Q2 last year.

US Government Remains the Engine

The US Government segment is the core driver. Singh forecasts growth in the low 80% range YoY, fueled by increased Department of Homeland Security spending following the end of the government shutdown on April 30.

The war in the Middle East is also cited as a demand catalyst. Singh’s checks show Palantir winning more task orders as a prime contractor and becoming “increasingly favored” across the Department of War.

International government growth is expected to be weaker. European allies including France and Germany are distancing themselves from Palantir, and the company faces “increased scrutiny” in the UK.

US Commercial Growth Holding Up

Singh forecasts at least 135% YoY growth for the US Commercial segment, with full-year growth of at least 125%.

There has been growing concern that LLM providers deploying forward-deployed engineers could erode Palantir’s competitive position. Singh says those fears are overstated.

His checks suggest Palantir’s Ontology platform handles far more complex workflows than LLM providers currently target. LLMs are going after simpler use cases.

Palantir also rolled out new agentic AI products at DevCon 6 on July 14. These include Orchestrator, Agent Engine, and Agent SDK — all aimed at capturing demand for agentic AI workflows.

Singh says these tools should reduce reliance on external platforms and shorten time-to-value for customers.

Oppenheimer’s $200 price target implies 58% upside from current levels. The Street’s average target is $181.24, suggesting 43% upside over the next twelve months.

Based on 15 Buys, 4 Holds, and 2 Sells, the analyst consensus rates PLTR a Moderate Buy.