Can Palantir (PLTR) Stock Beat Earnings Again on August 3?

TLDR

• Oppenheimer expects Palantir to beat Q2 estimates, forecasting ~85% revenue growth vs. guidance of ~79%
• Analysts forecast EPS of $0.35 on $1.81B revenue, up from $0.16 and $1B a year ago
• U.S. government remains the biggest growth driver, with DHS and military spending accelerating
• Morningstar rates PLTR fairly valued with a $153 fair value estimate and a narrow economic moat
• PLTR trades at ~71x sales and ~113x forward earnings, leaving little room for any miss

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Palantir reports Q2 2026 earnings after the close on August 3, and Wall Street is watching closely. The stock has been trading in the $115–$150 range for most of 2026, after peaking near $200 in Q4 2025.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

Oppenheimer is bullish going in. The firm expects revenue growth of around 85% year-over-year, ahead of Palantir’s own guidance of roughly 79%. It also expects Palantir to raise its full-year outlook above the current 71% growth target.

Consensus analyst estimates sit at $0.35 adjusted EPS on $1.81 billion in revenue. That compares to $0.16 EPS and $1 billion in revenue in the same quarter last year.

The U.S. government segment remains the core growth engine. Oppenheimer points to increased spending from the Department of Homeland Security and expanding activity across military services and combatant commands.

International government growth is expected to be softer. Some European allies are reportedly exploring alternative providers, which could weigh on that segment.

On the commercial side, Oppenheimer pushed back on fears that large AI model providers will undercut Palantir’s position. The firm argues Palantir’s Ontology platform handles more complex enterprise workflows than competing AI products.

Morningstar holds a similar view on the competitive moat. It rates Palantir with a narrow moat, citing switching costs and proprietary intangible assets tied to the Ontology framework.

Valuation Is the Key Debate

Morningstar’s fair value estimate is $153, implying a 2026 EV/sales multiple of 48x. At current prices near that level, the firm gives PLTR a 3-star rating — fairly valued, not a bargain.

The broader valuation picture is harder to ignore. PLTR trades at roughly 71x sales and 113x forward earnings as of late July. That pricing demands near-perfect execution every quarter.

Palantir’s financial position is solid. As of March 2026, the company held approximately $2.2 billion in cash with no debt. It has posted three straight years of GAAP profitability, with 2025 more than three times as profitable as 2024.

Bears Still Have a Case

The bear case centers on valuation and competition risk. Frontier AI labs are pushing further up the software stack, and some reports describe large labs hiring away Palantir’s forward-deployed engineers.

There’s also the government budget risk. Federal spending is tied to congressional appropriations, and any delays or shifts in priorities can introduce timing risk into the revenue outlook.

Internationally, Palantir’s NHS contract in the UK has drawn data-privacy opposition and legal scrutiny, adding friction to an already slow European expansion.

Morningstar notes that if a viable alternative to the Ontology framework emerges, or if the total addressable market comes in below expectations, downward price corrections could be sharp.

Palantir has beaten estimates and raised guidance in each of its last several quarters. The key question on August 3 is whether it can do it again — and whether another raise is enough to satisfy a market that has priced in a lot of good news.

Palantir’s Q2 2026 earnings report is scheduled for after market close on August 3, 2026.