
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, extending its pause for a sixth consecutive meeting as policymakers continue to assess persistent inflation.
With futures markets assigning roughly a 65% probability to a hold before the announcement, much of the decision had already been priced in. Bitcoin consequently showed a controlled reaction before the news and was trading near $64,400 after the release.
BTC is also holding its important 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, while the 50-day simple moving average sits directly below the same area. Together, the two levels form a concentrated support zone that buyers need to defend to preserve the current structure.

The rate announcement may therefore prove less important than the guidance that follows it. Kevin Warsh’s remarks could move Bitcoin if he signals that another rate increase remains possible or takes a more aggressive position on inflation.
Markets are also waiting for Japan’s rate decision, which could affect global liquidity and risk appetite. A surprise from either central bank would leave Bitcoin’s current support zone facing a more meaningful test.



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