What to know:
- Polymarket traders cut the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage odds to a record-low 27%.
- The Senate delay leaves fewer working days before lawmakers begin their Aug. 8 recess.
- Ethics rules and stablecoin rewards remain key barriers to the CLARITY Act’s passage.
Polymarket traders cut the CLARITY Act’s chance of becoming law in 2026 to a record-low 27% on July 29. The drop followed the Senate’s decision to postpone action on the crypto market structure bill as its summer recess approached.
The contract price reflects market expectations, not an independent forecast. However, it signals growing doubt about the time left for lawmakers to resolve the proposal’s main disputes. Galaxy Digital also reduced its estimated passage probability to 30%.
What Is Delaying the CLARITY Act in the Senate?
Senate Majority Leader John Thune delayed consideration while the chamber handled a Russia sanctions package and several federal nominees. Senators voted on July 28 to advance the sanctions measure. That decision left fewer working days before the Aug. 8 recess.
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Industry participants have urged Thune to begin the cloture process before the break. A final vote may not occur, but a procedural test could show whether the measure has enough bipartisan support to move forward later in the year.
Provisions on ethics will continue to be a major obstacle. According to Tillis, the enforcement of ethics provisions can be done by state attorneys general rather than only by the Department of Justice. The talks involve not only elected officials but also their involvement in digital assets.
A second dispute relates to stablecoin rewards. Bankers seek to have yield-bearing products curbed for possible competition with traditional deposits. Crypto firms argue that restrictions may harm consumers’ choices.
The legislation needs more than just an agreement on ethics. It should pass Senate procedural tests, get approval of the Senate, and reconcile differences with the House version. All this makes passage before the recess hard.
The CLARITY Act would divide regulation of the digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its proponents see the regulatory regime as one giving exchanges, token issuers, and blockchains clear guidelines in America.
Financial Firms Back the CLARITY Act
Rep. Mike Haridopolos of Florida reiterated his support during a Fox Business Network July 28 program. He stressed that any further delay in the passage of the bill would result in investments and jobs moving to jurisdictions where there are already clear regulations.
Blackrock, Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and SoFi are some of those supporting the bill. Sen. Cynthia Lummis mentioned their support to rebut claims that Wall Street is opposing the bill.
The Consumer Technology Association had expressed the same concern. It had argued that regulatory uncertainty may drive funds and jobs overseas.
Paul Atkins, former Chairman of the SEC, had earlier indicated that the SEC, as an independent regulator, could regulate the market structure issue if Congress does not enact legislation. However, legislation would be a more permanent solution to the problem.
The SEC can take an independent initiative to define the regulatory status of certain tokens, exchanges, and securities. But an independent regulation cannot become a substitute for a statute allocating regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC.
Now, the bipartisanship ethics counteroffer is the next challenge to the bill. Its acceptance by the White House could facilitate discussions post-recess. But considering the tight calendar and unyielding dispute on stable coins, the proposal faces its weakest prospects yet.
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