TLDR
- GOOGL stock declined in July after reports of delays to Gemini 3.5 Pro.
- Google has not announced an official release date for its new reasoning model.
- Kalshi traders place a 46% chance on a launch before August 16.
- The odds rise to 63% before August 21 and 76% before August 31.
- More than $320,000 has been wagered on the release date of the Gemini 3.5 Pro.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) stock declined last month after reports said Google had delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro. Prediction market traders now expect the flagship reasoning model to arrive before August ends.
Google has not confirmed a release date. The model will compete with OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, and other artificial intelligence tools.
GOOGL Stock Faced Pressure in July
GOOGL stock weakened in July after Bloomberg reported that Gemini 3.5 Pro was months behind schedule. The report said Google engineers needed more time to improve the model, especially its coding performance.
The delay raised questions about Google’s product timeline as rivals released updated models. Alphabet has not commented on the reported setbacks or confirmed whether development remains behind schedule.
Kalshi data shows traders have wagered more than $320,000 on when Google will release Gemini 3.5 Pro. The contract tracks several possible August launch windows.
Traders assign a 46% chance to a release before August 16. The probability rises to 63% before August 21 and 76% before August 31.
Made by Google Event Draws Attention
Google will hold its Made by Google event in New York City on August 12. The company plans to introduce its Pixel 11 smartphone series.
Some social media users expect Google to reveal Gemini 3.5 Pro with the new devices. Others expect a later release, matching the prediction market’s August timeline.
Google has not said whether Gemini 3.5 Pro will appear at the Pixel event. The company has not confirmed the model’s features, pricing, access plans, or rollout schedule.
Investors may watch Google’s updates through August. GOOGL stock could remain sensitive to new information about the model and its launch date.
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